Hot news

• On Thursday pre-market, the three major futures indexes experienced a short-term decline, with Nasdaq futures falling by 0.64%.

• The US CPI YoY achieved a six consecutive decline but was higher than expected; the US initial jobless claims hit a one-year high.

The US unadjusted CPI YoY in September recorded 2.4%, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline since February 2021, but higher than the market's expected 2.3%. The US unadjusted core CPI YoY in September reached 3.3%, hitting a new high since June, surpassing the market's expected 3.2%.

In the week ending October 5, the US initial jobless claims were 0.258 million people, with an expectation of 0.23 million people, surpassing the previous value of 0.225 million people; marking the highest since the week of August 5, 2023.

After the release of US CPI and other data, traders increased their bets on the 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.

• Much attention! Tesla's Robotaxi is about to debut.

Local time on Thursday, October 10 at 19:00 (10:00 on October 11 Beijing time), $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ An official event titled "We, Robot" will be held for the Robotaxi demonstration. There are reports that Musk will showcase the Cybercab prototype at the event and share the latest developments in Tesla's FSD technology. Tesla has previously stated that they are developing a specifically designed, dedicated robot taxi. Analysts believe that Tesla's accelerated launch of Robotaxi will boost the stock price, with investors focusing on deployment costs.

• Guo Mingchi: The assembly orders for the iPhone 16 series have remained almost unchanged, with demand for the two Pro models roughly in line with expectations to date.

Renowned analyst Guo Mingchi pointed out, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ The assembly orders for the iPhone 16 series have remained almost unchanged, with suppliers being asked to continue production of the two Pro models during the National Day holiday, indicating that demand for the two Pro models roughly meets expectations to date. Some minor adjustments have been made to orders after mid-November (mainly for the 16 standard version and 16 Plus), but the magnitude is less than 3-5% and can be largely ignored. The next focus will be on the impact of Apple Intelligence's launch in late October on demand/shipments in the USA market.

• Delta Air Lines Q3 performance and Q4 guidance both fall short of expectations.

$Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$ Q3 adjusted revenue was $14.6 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.50, both below the average analyst expectations. Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 2% to 4% year-on-year, lower than the average analyst expectation of a 4.3% year-on-year increase; Estimated Q4 adjusted earnings per share to be $1.60 to $1.85, with the midpoint of the forecast range below the average analyst expectation of $1.75. The company anticipates a decrease in travel demand during the U.S. election period and industry growth gradually slowing down. As of the time of publication, Delta Air Lines' pre-market trading on the US market fell by nearly 3%.

• Xpeng Motors rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading, and the new model P7+ will begin pre-sale on October 14.

$XPeng (XPEV.US)$ Rising nearly 3% in pre-market trading, trading at $12.89. On October 10, the Xpeng P7+ made its official debut, with display vehicles gradually arriving at various stores nationwide, and pre-sale will begin at the Paris Motor Show on October 14; In early November, the P7+ will be available for delivery upon its launch. He Xiaopeng, Chairman and CEO of Xpeng Motors, revealed that the Xpeng P7+ is positioned as a coupe SUV priced under 0.3 million, and will be equipped with two Nvidia Orin X chips, supporting the "AI Eagle Eye Vision Intelligent Driving" solution. In addition, Xpeng Motors announced that it delivered 21,352 vehicles in September, reaching a historical high.

• Trip.com rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading, receiving a target price upgrade from Citi to $72.

$Trip.com (TCOM.US)$ Rising 3.86% in pre-market trading, trading at $64.8. Citi issued a report stating that Trip.com is expected to announce its third-quarter performance from mid to late November, with the bank expecting its revenue and adjusted net income to be in line with market expectations. However, the bank does not rule out the potential for further upside due to the resilience of Chinese travel demand and Trip.com's good performance in R&D and cost control. The bank has raised its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 1% each to reflect the resilience of domestic and outbound travel demand, raising Trip.com's US stock target price from $66 to $72, maintaining a "buy" rating.

• Apple rose nearly 2%, with call options expiring on Friday making the most profit at 150%.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$ Rose 1.67% yesterday, options trading actively. Yesterday, the trading volume was 0.6813 million contracts, an increase of nearly 0.02 million contracts compared to the previous trading day, with a call ratio of 54.9%. In the options chain, the most traded single call contract expiring this week at a strike price of $230 is 0.0675 million contracts; among the unclosed options, there are 0.092 million contracts of calls expiring on January 17, 2025, at a strike price of $250, the largest in quantity. In profitable options, the call options expiring this Friday at strike prices of $230 and $230.5 are both making profits of over 150%.

Global macro

• Wall Street's top short sellers rarely change their stance! First time in two years issuing optimistic signals for US stocks.

Since October 2022, JPMorgan's strategic analysts have been bearish on the stock market. However, according to a report released by JPMorgan's Chief Global Equity Strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas on Tuesday, this situation seems to be changing. The driving factors behind Lakos-Bujas's sentiment shift include the Fed rate cut and China's new stimulus measures. Although he did not update JPMorgan's year-end target price of 4200 points for the S&P 500 index, he did advise investors not to be so bearish on the market.

• Barclays: Still expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in November and December, with three more rate cuts in 2025.

Barclays research team published a research report on the September meeting minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The report mentioned that the September meeting minutes indicated unanimous agreement among all FOMC members that a rate cut in September was the appropriate choice. Among them, a "vast majority of members" supported a 50 basis point rate cut. Based on these FOMC meeting minutes, Barclays maintains its previous benchmark forecast, namely that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in November and December respectively, and will cut rates three more times in 2025, in March, June, and September, each time by 25 basis points.

• Bernstein: Reaffirming the tactical shareholding position in the china stock market, downgrading the rating of the india stock market to shareholding.

Bernstein's Asian algo strategist at Industrial Bank of France downgraded the rating of the Indian stock market from neutral to shareholding due to valuation, while expecting the Chinese stock market to further rise under policy incentives. The strategist reaffirmed a tactical shareholding position on China and anticipated that the Ministry of Finance will release 'some specific announcements' on Saturday or after the US election. The strategist stated: 'The Indian market is quite fragile in the short term, driven by historically high relative valuations compared to China and emerging markets.'

• Existing home loan interest rates are in the spotlight! Several major banks have announced bulk adjustments starting on October 25th.

On October 10, industrial and commercial bank of china, bank of communications, cm bank, shanghai pudong development bank, china zheshang bank, industrial bank, and other banks released a common Q&A on the adjustment of existing house loan rates. For those whose mortgage rates are higher than LPR-30BP, they will be uniformly adjusted to LPR-30BP. Both first and second home mortgages will be adjusted, with industrial and commercial bank of china confirming the adjustment on October 25, and other banks completing the adjustment by October 31. Those whose mortgage rates are lower than LPR-30BP will not participate in this adjustment.

• Two departments: Supporting private economic organizations to revitalize existing assets through various means

The Ministry of Justice and the National Development and Reform Commission: Support private economic organizations to revitalize existing assets through various means, improve reinvestment capabilities, enhance asset quality and benefits. Governments at all levels and their relevant departments support private economic organizations to participate in government and social capital cooperation projects. Government and social capital cooperation projects should reasonably define the rights and obligations of both sides, clarify matters such as the way investment returns are obtained, and risk-sharing mechanisms. Governments at all levels and their relevant departments should provide efficient and convenient investment services for private economic organizations in project promotion, preliminary work and application approval matters, resource acquisition, government investment support, etc.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:30 US CPI data for September

20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 5

At 21:15, Lisa Cook, a director of the Federal Reserve, gave a speech.

At 22:30, Richmond Fed President and 2024 FOMC voting member, Barkin, participated in a fireside chat.

At 23:00, Williams, a permanent voting member of the FOMC and President of the New York Fed, delivered a speech on economic outlook and monetary policy and participated in the discussion.

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