These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. To wit, the PROG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PRG) share price is 53% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 31% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. The longer term returns have not been as good, with the stock price only 11% higher than it was three years ago.
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the last year, PROG Holdings actually saw its earnings per share drop 13%.
Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Therefore, it seems likely that investors are putting more weight on metrics other than EPS, at the moment.
We doubt the modest 1.0% dividend yield is doing much to support the share price. PROG Holdings' revenue actually dropped 3.7% over last year. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that PROG Holdings has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 54% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 4% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand PROG Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for PROG Holdings that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
