Source: Jin10 Data

As the usa enters the presidential election this autumn, although inflation has gradually returned to normal, price issues still worry voters and become the focus of the campaign.

According to a public opinion survey conducted by Ipsos, a French research company in Paris at the end of last month, more than half of American adults still rank inflation as the country's top issue, far exceeding other concerns such as immigration, crime, and abortion. Experts say this disconnect is partly due to the lag between declining inflation and consumers adjusting to new price levels, as lower inflation does not mean prices are going down, but rather indicates a slowdown in the rate of price increases.

Despite a recent improvement in consumer attitudes over the past few months, many Americans remain dissatisfied with the cumulative price increases in recent years. This trend is bringing uncertainty to the competition between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, as ongoing inflation concerns may not be favorable to Harris, but the recent improvement in sentiment may alleviate some of the negative impact.

Chris Jackson, Senior Vice President, Public Affairs, Ipsos usa, said in an interview: "Inflation is a problem that takes a long time to make people feel better. He added:

"For Harris, a decrease in inflation is definitely more favorable than an increase, but it would have been more favorable for her if it had come six months ago. The current situation is still very much up in the air."

As the presidential election enters the sprint phase, one of Trump's most effective attacks is to blame inflation on Harris. However, analysts believe that any Americans truly concerned about inflation should be more worried about Trump than Harris, as Harris is more serious about combating inflation and helping families cope with high living costs. More importantly, Trump plans to impose high tariffs on all imported commodities, which will significantly raise prices and severely impact consumers, especially those who are not very wealthy.

In the United States, inflation has significantly slowed from its peak of around 9% in 2022, currently hovering slightly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target level. The price increases of some essential goods have shown noticeable improvement. Data shows that in recent months, gasoline prices have dropped significantly. The rise in food prices is slower than overall inflation, but according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the rate of increase in housing prices is still more than twice the overall price increase rate.

The CPI inflation data for September will be released on Thursday, October 10th at 8:30 pm, with the market expecting overall CPI inflation to continue to decline year-on-year to 2.3%.

Despite the overall inflation returning to normal, this progress has not reversed the price surge since the pandemic. Since the beginning of 2021, consumer prices have risen by over 20%. Economist Sofia Baig explains that this cumulative price increase explains why people still perceive inflation as high, even though inflation has decreased to levels considered normal by economists.

"There is a gap between people's perception of inflation and economists' views. Many people seem unaware that inflation has decreased because prices are still high."

Neale Mahoney, Stanford University economics professor and former economic policy special advisor to the White House National Economic Council, stated that after experiencing a period of high inflation, consumers will eventually get used to this higher price level, but this process may take up to three years. Since inflation peaked in June 2022, it has been about two years and four months. "We are entering a phase where concerns about inflation are beginning to dissipate," Mahoney said.

Data shows that since 2022, the public's attitude towards the economy has improved. A survey by the University of Michigan in August showed a slight rebound in consumer confidence, although attitudes remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Partisan positions also play an important role in individuals' perception of inflation, creating more enduring dissatisfaction with the economy among conservatives. An Ipsos survey in September showed that about 80% of adults who frequently consume conservative media stated they did not see food or gasoline prices drop, with only 17% saying prices had decreased. For those who frequently consume mainstream media, 46% said they did not see prices drop, while 47% said prices had indeed decreased.

"It is difficult to separate people's perceptions of the economy from their political views." While the persistent perception of inflation may be unfavorable to Harris, an increase in consumer confidence could mitigate this negative impact, experts say. Baig said: "I don't think there will be much change before the election," but she pointed out that the improvement in consumer attitudes is good news for the ruling party, even though it has not yet returned to previous levels.

However, the exact trajectory of prices and the economy remains uncertain, leaving a suspense as to how inflation will affect the elections. Jackson said: "We will know the results in four weeks."

Editor / jayden