Finance Associated Press, October 10th (Editor: Niú Zhànlín) As the 2024 US presidential election officially enters the final sprint stage, the two presidential candidates remain evenly matched, with some investors already preparing for potential political risks.

A poll released by Reuters/Ipsos on Tuesday showed Harris leading Trump by a slight margin of 46% to 43%, well within the margin of error of 3 percentage points, indicating a fierce competition between the two.

Several analysts believe that given the events of the '1·6 Capitol Hill Riot' in 2021, regardless of the outcome of the 2024 election, if Harris wins, it is unlikely that Trump will accept the election results.

Investors also anticipate the election results to be widely questioned, potentially making it the most disputed election in US history. Trump's allies are preparing for legal battles after election day, likely to contest the vote count or even the election results, increasing market uncertainty.

Earlier this week, billionaire Elon Musk of the USA stated that he is 'all in' supporting Trump to return to the White House. 'If by some chance Trump loses, there will be retribution against me - it's very likely.'

Musk also claimed that if Trump loses, it would be the USA's last 'real election'.

Walter Todd, Chief Investment Officer of Greenwood Capital, commented that this will be a closely contested election, hence the likelihood of some controversy is higher than before. He anticipates that if the election results remain uncertain for a few days, the US stock market may face selling pressure.

Todd further explained that the market dislikes uncertainty, and if a day or two after the election it is still not clear who the US president is, the market will definitely feel unsettled.

Currently, political uncertainty does not seem to dampen investors' enthusiasm for the stock market, with the S&P 500 index already up more than 20% this year. Apart from the election risk, the upcoming earnings season may reveal whether this ongoing uptrend is sustainable.

Market Risks

Lauren Goodwin, Economist and Chief Market Strategist at New York Life Investments, stated that investors will focus on company executives' views on the escalating Middle East conflict and the US presidential election, both significant variables that could affect the continued broadening of the US stock market rally.

Meanwhile, the volatility index of the CBOE has risen above 20, indicating investors anticipate increased market turbulence, partly due to the upcoming election.

The options market also reflects heightened concerns about tail risks, which are significant market disruptions caused by events that are unlikely but have a major impact.

Michael Purves, CEO of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, believes investors should pay more attention to potential post-election disputes, as such disputes might have sustained impacts on the market beyond just a few days around the election.

Purves pointed out, 'If the election results are widely questioned, it could lead to controversy and legal challenges, potentially triggering a stock market sell-off.'

UBS Group analyst Kurt Reiman remains bullish on the stock market, but he suggests investors should consider defensive assets such as utility stocks and gold to hedge potential political risks.

Editor / jayden