Bank of China International expects that due to the significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the USA, the gold price rose by 7% in September. Benefiting from the high gold price and the leverage effect on returns, golden industrial concept listed in Hong Kong saw a substantial increase in September.

The bank expects that the gold price will face further upward pressure due to the expected further interest rate cuts by the Fed in the fourth quarter of this year and next year; the global loose monetary policy of central banks, especially the huge monetary easing in China; under the stimulus policies in China, it may lead to enhanced physical purchases demand; the retail demand in the Indian market continues to be robust; renewed attention from global gold ETF investors; continued net long positions from global institutional investors; and diversified long-term demand from global central banks.

The bank has raised its annual gold price forecasts for 2024 to 2026 by 2%, 6%, and 5%, reaching $2,400, $2,775, and $2,850 per ounce, respectively. It is also expected that global gold prices will rise by 24%, 16%, and 3% from 2024 to 2026. In the industry, the bank prefers sd gold and Zijin. With the improved outlook for gold prices, the bank has raised Zijin's target price from 21.5 yuan to 22.4 yuan, upgrading the rating from 'Neutral' to 'Outperform'; and raised sd gold's target price from 18 yuan to 22.1 yuan, rated 'Outperform'.