周三，由于美联储会议纪要导致美元走强，黄金连续第六个交易日回落。现货黄金周三收盘重挫14.13美元，跌幅0.54%，报2607.71美元/盎司。金价盘中最低跌至2605.16美元/盎司。#GoldTechnical Analysis#24K99 News On Thursday (October 10th), during the early European session, spot gold maintained its intraday rebound trend, with the current price around $2615 per ounce. FXStreet senior analyst Dhwani Mehta wrote an article on Thursday analyzing the technical trend of gold prices.
Mehta pointed out that the price of gold has fallen below the 21-day moving average, and after losing this key average, the fate of gold depends on the USA's CPI.
(Screenshot source: FXStreet)
On Wednesday, due to the strength of the US dollar following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, gold fell for the sixth consecutive trading day. Spot gold closed sharply lower on Wednesday, down $14.13 or 0.54% to $2607.71 per ounce. The lowest price during the trading day dropped to $2605.16 per ounce.
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed that the majority of Fed officials supported a substantial 50 basis point rate cut, but "some" preferred a 25 basis point cut, which "these" could have supported.
According to the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool, the market believes there is an 82% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November.
Mehta said that the consumer inflation data for September in the USA will be a key factor in completely ruling out the possibility of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
At 20:30 on Thursday Beijing time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
It is expected that the year-on-year increase in US CPI for September will drop from 2.5% to 2.3%. The month-on-month increase in CPI for September is expected to rise by 0.1%, lower than the previous 0.2% increase.
The US core CPI year-on-year increase for September is expected to remain at 3.2%; the month-on-month increase in core CPI for September is expected to drop from 0.3% to 0.2%.
Mehta wrote that if the year-on-year and month-on-month CPI data fall short of expectations, it may reignite hope for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, triggering a new round of pullback in the US dollar against major currencies. In this case, the price of gold may rebound strongly.
Mehta added that on the other hand, if the US CPI exceeds expectations, the market may even reduce bets on a 25 basis point rate cut in November. In this case, gold prices may suffer the most impact, while the US dollar is expected to show sustained recovery.
Investors are also paying attention to the US initial jobless claims data. At 20:30 on Thursday Beijing time, the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending October 5 in the USA will be released, expected to be 0.23 million, compared to 0.225 million the previous week.
美联储官员讲话方面，北京时间周四23:00，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯将就经济前景与货币政策发表讲话并参与讨论。
作为纽约联储主席，威廉姆斯同时在The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)(FOMC)兼任副主席，与美联储理事一样拥有永久的投票权，被视作美联储的“三号人物”。
此外，北京时间周四21:15，美联储理事库克将发表讲话。北京时间周四22:30，里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金将参与一场炉边谈话。
How to trade gold?
Mehta指出，尽管金价周三收于关键的21日Simple Moving Average(SMA)ResistanceBelow (at $2619/oz) but gold buyers are still defending their positions.
Due to the 14-dayRelative Strength Index(RSI) still holding above 50, gold buyers remain hopeful of a potential turnaround.
Mehta said, in terms of downside, immediate support for gold price is seen at $2600/oz. If the price continues to fall below this level, the decline may extend towards the September 20 low of $2585/oz.
(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)
On the other hand, Mehta added that the gold price needs to reclaim the 21-day moving average support-turned-resistance level (currently at $2623 per ounce) in order to restore the upward trend.
The next call targets for the gold price are at $2650 per ounce psychological barrier and near the high of $2670 per ounce.
At 15:54 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $2615.22 per ounce.
