Intelligence Finance APP learned that Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that it maintained the "outperform market" rating for Alibaba-SW (09988), decreased the adjusted EBITA by 1% for the third fiscal quarter of this year; and raised it by 1% for the fiscal years 2025 to 2026 to reflect the performance of branch profit margins, with the target price lowered from 141 Hong Kong dollars to 139.3 Hong Kong dollars.

The bank noted that Alibaba is focusing on narrowing the gap between Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and industry growth rates to solidify its market position, while driving more effective marketing solutions for long-term monetization. Due to weak consumer sentiment and seasonal factors, the overall industry's consumption performance in the second fiscal quarter showed a weak trend. Combined with recent monetization adjustment factors, the bank expects Alibaba's Customer Management Revenue (CMR) to grow by 1% year-on-year; GMV to grow by 5% year-on-year. The promotion of omni-channel marketing solutions may help further narrow the gap after the third fiscal quarter.

Morgan Stanley mentioned that Alibaba's recent cooperation with WeChat Pay will help increase the number of active buyers, thereby contributing to a more stable GMV dynamic. Furthermore, as Alibaba remains committed to prioritizing user experience and merchant quality, the bank expects a 7% year-on-year decrease in core adjusted EBITA for the second fiscal quarter to 44 billion RMB. It also anticipates a 5% year-on-year decline in group adjusted EBITA to 41 billion RMB.