According to the Etnet Finance app, US oil and gas giant ExxonMobil (XOM.US) traded weakly during regular trading hours on Wednesday, but ultimately closed slightly higher. The stock weakened during trading hours primarily due to Exane BNP Paribas, a securities unit of the French bank BNP Paribas, downgrading ExxonMobil's stock rating from 'Neutral' to 'Shareholding', with a target price set at $105 (compared to the company's stock price closing at $122.09 on Wednesday's US stock market). The long-time leader in the US oil and gas industry rarely receives 'Shareholding' or 'Sell' ratings, and this is the first time in over a year that an institution has given the stock a 'Shareholding' rating, indicating that the stock price may further decline due to weak crude oil prices.

French bank analyst Lucas Hellmann also downgraded the stock ratings of BP plc (BP.US) and Spain's largest oil company Repsol (REPYY.US) from 'Outperform Large Cap' to 'Neutral', citing an imminent severe OPEC+ production capacity surplus, indicating that this negative outlook is hanging over the oil industry like the Sword of Damocles. He also noted that these three traditional energy companies face extreme risks of weak refining margins.

Analyst Hellmann stated that given the current dynamics of supply and demand in the oil market, the global crude oil benchmark, Brent crude oil price, may soon fall to $60 per barrel, therefore 'we suspect that investors' interest in investing in the oil industry will face greater challenges'.

Furthermore, the media reported on Wednesday that ExxonMobil is in deep negotiations with other shareholders to pave the way for selling its stake in Germany's second-largest super refinery, a deal that was halted earlier this year following a court ruling. This news deepened some analysts' concerns about ExxonMobil, as they believe that ExxonMobil's actions may be due to the company's anticipation of a possible oversupply of crude oil in the near future, which could then drag down the refining business and strive to mitigate the potential negative impact of an oversupply of crude oil.

ExxonMobil announced nearly a year ago its plans to sell up to 25% of its stake in the German refinery MiRO Mineraloelraffinerie Oberrhein to the commodity trader Alcmene, a subsidiary of the large commodity trader and port operator Liwathon in Austria, but the deal has not yet been finalized.

Reportedly, another shareholder of the refinery is European oil and gas giant Shell (SHEL.US), which received a court ruling in July stating that ExxonMobil should first seek formal approval from all shareholders of the refinery. ExxonMobil is currently working with Shell on formulating a corresponding compensation plan.

Last week, the benchmark price of crude oil, Brent crude oil, soared to over $80 per barrel mainly due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. However, since then, due to the continued fermenting of negative concerns about 'oversupply', the price of Brent crude oil has fallen back to around $75 per barrel. The latest data from the EIA shows that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 5.8 million barrels in the week ending October 4, exceeding the expected 2 million barrels, indicating ample supply and no significant increase in market demand, catalyzing the negative expectation of 'oversupply'.

The crude oil market has completely shifted its focus to the expectation of 'oversupply', which is the core logic behind the bearish outlook on the Brent crude oil price in 2025 by most investment institutions. Ben Leacock, the head of oil trading at Toke Group, recently stated that the Brent crude oil price may soon fall into the pessimistic range of $60, agreeing with the 'oversupply' view, a rare consensus among commodity giants long on crude oil. Research reports released by Wall Street heavyweights Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both indicate that after 2025, the entire crude oil market may shift from a slightly tense supply-demand balance to a potential surplus. Goldman Sachs even predicts that Brent crude oil trading prices may fall to a temporary low of $61 per barrel.