As of September 30, 2024, according to Baichuan Yingfu data, the prices of third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a were 38,000 yuan/ton, 32,500 yuan/ton, and 33,500 yuan/ton respectively, up 7.04%, 10.17%, and 1.52%, respectively, from the end of August.

The price of R22 was 30,000 yuan/ton, the same as at the end of August, up 53.85% from the beginning of 2024; the price difference was 21,168 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the end of August.

According to industry online data, from October to December 2024, China's total production volume of air conditioners was 11.77 million units, 13.3077 million units, and 14.9071 million units, respectively. They all continued to increase over the same period last year, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.95%, 24.00%, and 9.70%, respectively. Since this year, household air conditioning and refrigerator exhaust production has been relatively high in recent years, supporting refrigerant demand.

Affected by the rapid increase in production capacity and the decline in demand growth, China's PTFE, PVDF, and HFP prices will all remain low in 2024.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Donghai Securities published a research report saying that according to a letter from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, second-generation refrigerant quotas were being reduced at an accelerated pace, and the total production and use of third-generation refrigerants remained at a baseline value. The same as last year, the R32 quota was increased.

Currently, the second-generation refrigerant R22 is mainly used in the maintenance market, and stock demand is relatively stable. The team believes that the reduction in R22 quota is expected to drive prices to continue to rise.

In terms of third-generation refrigerants, driven by demand for household air conditioners this year, R32 social inventories have declined, and prices have risen rapidly. Although the domestic usage quota has increased by 35,000 tons, there is currently not much impact on prices. Therefore, Donghai Securities believes that the 2025 additional quota will not have a negative impact on the price of R32, and the third-generation refrigerant boom is expected to continue.

Leading refrigerant companies:

Dongyue Group (00189): A subsidiary of Dongyue Silicon Materials, is expected to have net profit of about 62 million to 68 million yuan in the first half of the year. Compared with a loss of 0.192 billion yuan in the same period last year, it turned a loss into a profit. Gross margin increased mainly due to an increase in product production, sales and operating income during the period, as well as a decrease in unit production costs. Dongyue Group's R22 production capacity is the highest in the world. In addition, Dongyue Group's refrigerant products include more than 10 products such as R32, R125, and R134a, and the prices of these varieties have all increased to varying degrees since this year.