According to the Securities Times APP, economists expect that despite price pressures on some categories of goods such as used cars, key inflation indicators in the United States are expected to slow down in September.

According to a survey of economists, the Consumer Price Index and the core CPI excluding food and energy may each rise by 0.1% and 0.2% in September. In both cases, the monthly increases will be lower than in August.

The basic inflation rate in the United States is expected to slow down in September.

On an annual basis, the overall CPI is expected to grow by 2.3%, the lowest increase since the beginning of 2021. Core CPI is expected to increase year-on-year for the second consecutive month by 3.2%.

If the data aligns with expectations, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's policy decision in November.

Bloomberg Economics' Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong wrote in a report on Thursday, "Even if the core CPI unexpectedly rises, we do not believe the September report will change the FOMC's view of inflation trending downward." She expects, following last monthThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) After the (FOMC) cut interest rates by half a percentage point, rates will be lowered by another 25 basis points in November.

Commodity prices

Most forecasters believe that after several months of decline, second-hand car prices will rebound. This will put pressure on core commodities, as in the past 15 months, core commodity prices have fallen for 14 months.

Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics suggest that the rise in container transportation prices may have an impact on this category in the future.

"Transportation costs' impact on CPI will lag by at least six months," wrote Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen on Tuesday. "As a result, the impact of the almost doubling of container freight rates earlier in the year may gradually feed through to core commodity prices of CPI in the coming months."

PCE effects

Rising second-hand car prices are bad news for consumers, especially with the continuous high increase in auto insurance prices. However, this will not have a significant impact on the inflation indicators favored by the Federal Reserve - the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. The index has consistently approached the Fed's 2% target.

Morgan Stanley economist Diego Anzoategui wrote last week: "The weight of used cars in core PCE is relatively low, so their accelerated growth has a small impact on PCE. Used cars account for about 2% of the CPI basket and 1.2% of the PCE basket."

Lucrative salary.

Economists say another upward risk to inflation comes from wages, which are a key driver of consumer spending. In August, the annual real income growth rate reached a new high for a year. With nearly 50,000 dockworkers securing significant raises through negotiations and 33,000 Boeing employees currently on strike to reach an agreement, inflation pressure may be greater.

Citigroup economists Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst wrote in a report on Tuesday: "Continued strength in wages will pose a clear upward risk to inflation, especially in the healthcare and other service industries."