国信证券指出，中远海控发布前三季度业绩预告，同比增长超70%，表现优异，但是即期市场表现仍不容乐观，当前红海危机对欧线需求增速的一次性冲击效应已经逐步消退，需求侧目前仍具有较大压力，美东的罢工问题亦得以暂缓，供给侧的扰动因素未对行业运价形成明显支撑，行业运价仍在寻找新的平衡点。但是考虑到红海危机的长期化，且联盟对运力投放具有约束性作用，我们认为运价中长期来看有望维持于红海危机前的水平。Marine transportation stocks rebound collectively, as of the time of publication, Cosco Shipping Holdings rose by 6.88%, to 12.12 Hong Kong dollars; SITC rose by 5.62%, to 20.3 Hong Kong dollars; OOIL rose by 3.92%, to 106 Hong Kong dollars; Cosco Shipping Development rose by 2.53%, to 8.93 Hong Kong dollars.
According to Zhongtong Finance APP, marine transportation stocks rebound collectively, as of the time of publication,$COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919.HK)$rose by 6.88%, to 12.12 Hong Kong dollars;$SITC (01308.HK)$rose by 5.62%, to 20.3 Hong Kong dollars;$OOIL (00316.HK)$rose by 3.92%, to 106 Hong Kong dollars; $COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138.HK)$Rose by 2.53%, closing at 8.93 Hong Kong dollars.
On the news front, global container shipping giants Matson and Hapag-Lloyd have confirmed rerouting around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope as part of the 'Twin Stars' cooperation agreement they have reached. This indicates that these two shipping giants expect the Red Sea region to remain unsafe in 2025. It is noteworthy that this collaboration signifies a split between Maersk and the world's largest shipping company MSC, who together formed the 2M Alliance.
Guosen Securities pointed out that Cosco Shipping Holdings has announced its performance forecast for the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of over 70%, showing excellent performance. However, the immediate market performance is still not optimistic. The one-time impact of the Red Sea crisis on the growth rate of Europe-bound demand has gradually subsided. The current demand side still faces significant pressure, with the labor strike issue in the U.S. East Coast temporarily eased. The disruptive factors from the supply side have not provided clear support to industry freight rates, and industry rates are still seeking a new balance point. Considering the prolonged nature of the Red Sea crisis and the restrictive effect of alliances on capacity deployment, we believe that freight rates are expected to maintain levels similar to those before the Red Sea crisis in the medium to long term.
Editor/ping
