According to the Securities Times APP, economist Nouriel Roubini, known as the "Doomsday Doctor," recently issued a new warning. He mentioned that Donald Trump's return to the White House might trigger risks of stagflation shocks. Furthermore, Roubini also expressed that from a long-term perspective, investing in symbols related to technology and artificial intelligence is a good long-term investment strategy, although he noted that substantial fluctuations may need to be endured during this period. Roubini earned the title of "Doomsday Doctor" due to his accurate foresight of the 2008 global financial crisis.

During an interview at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Connecticut on Wednesday, Roubini expressed, 'Compared to the election of Kamala Harris as the new President of the United States, Trump's combination of trade, mmf, financial, immigration, and foreign policies brings a higher level of stagflation risks.' In his opinion, Trump's package policy plan - including higher tariffs, seeking dollar depreciation, and adopting a tougher stance on illegal immigration - may slow down the pace of U.S. economic development, while stimulating the rise in inflation rate.

Roubini also pointed out that the tense situation in the Middle East is a potential catalyst. He mentioned that further escalation in geopolitical situations could lead to a surge in crude oil product prices, increasing price pressure and driving the upward trend of the U.S. inflation rate.

Last week, the benchmark crude oil prices - Brent crude oil prices surged to over $81 per barrel mainly due to renewed tensions between Israel and Iran. However, subsequently, concerns about oversupply continued to ferment, causing Brent crude oil prices to fall back to around $75 per barrel. Generally, the rise in oil prices will stimulate a general increase in the U.S. CPI and harm the scale of U.S. business and consumer spending.

Roubini stated that in the United States, Trump's tough immigration policies, such as the pledge of mass deportations, pose another risk in light of the economic boost brought by the immigrant population in the U.S.

To hedge against the inflation and economic stagflation risks brought by Trump's presidency or his lead in the polls, as well as to protect investment portfolios, Roubini suggests that investors hold gold, short-term bonds, and inflation-indexed bonds (TIPs).

It is certain that Rubini, known as the "Dr. Doom", did not accurately predict all previous market forecasts. For example, as early as 2022, he made a similar pessimistic forecast about the still unseen stagflation debt crisis, but so far this prediction has not been successful.

In addition, the economist Rubini has long been skeptical of the continued rise in the US stock market, although he is not as pessimistic about the US technology giants.

"In my view, the technology giants are a grand narrative, starting from the USA, and ai will fundamentally change the world. In this sense, this incredibly grand narrative logic is indeed effective," he emphasized in a recent interview. "However, these changes will not happen overnight; it's a long-term process."

He further added that economic forecast data indicates that by the end of this decade, the widespread adoption of ai technology may drive the US domestic production efficiency growth rate to exceed 3%. However, this optimistic sentiment has largely been reflected in stock prices.

"From a long-term perspective, investing in symbols related to technology and ai is a very good long-term investment strategy. However, due to inflation rates, benchmark interest rates, and the potential scenarios in the US economy, there will be significant fluctuations in the stock market during the investment period," he said. "But looking from an investment rather than speculation perspective, technology is a game of long-term investment."

He also mentioned in the interview that traders have largely shaken off the risk of Trump's re-election as President for a second term, and are dismissive of the risks that Trump's election may bring. The main reason could be that intense competition with Harris may lead Trump and his campaign team to soften their proposed policy outlook in a more moderate way, and the potential for a market sell-off, which could prevent him from implementing certain radical policies.

Editor/ping