据彭博社报道，过去几周以来，香港新房和二手房的销量都大幅增长。其中，作为香港最大地产开发商之一的新鸿基，其公寓房在上周末实现了单日200余套的销量。In the first week of October, the sales volume of second-hand houses in Hong Kong surged by 60% compared to the previous week, reaching the highest level in six months. Jefferies Financial predicts that the Hong Kong property market is expected to bottom out, with next year's house price growth rate expected to be in single digits; however, there are also views that in a situation of excess housing inventory and weak economic growth, the recovery of the Hong Kong property market remains difficult.
Driven by both interest rate cuts and bullish stock market, the real estate market in Hong Kong has shown signs of recovery.
According to data from Midland Realty, in the first week of October, second-hand house sales in Hong Kong soared by 60% compared to the previous week, reaching the highest level in six months.
According to Bloomberg, in the past few weeks, both new and second-hand property sales in Hong Kong have significantly increased. Among them, as one of the largest property developers in Hong Kong, Sun Hung Kai Properties sold over 200 apartments in a single day last weekend.
Previously mentioned by Wall Street Journal, all units of the new development Tien Sher Tien under Sun Hung Kai Properties were sold out on the first day of opening, with oversubscription reaching 142 times, setting the fifth highest record for new property sales.
Sam Wong, a stock analyst at Jefferies Financial, mentioned that if the Hong Kong Monetary Authority further cuts interest rates and the stock market remains strong, the real estate market may bottom out, with an estimated single-digit percentage increase in house prices next year. Wong believes:
"When rental yield exceeds borrowing costs, the positive interest spread of housing investment will boost demand, thereby strengthening market confidence next year.
Another analysis suggests that market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are boosting investment enthusiasm, and it is expected that the value of residential properties in Hong Kong may stop falling and rebound by 2025.
At the same time, there is also a view that with excess housing inventory and weak economic growth, the road to recovery in the Hong Kong real estate market remains difficult.
Jones Lang Lasalle's Greater China research director Bruce Pang believes that the Hong Kong real estate market is mainly driven by the overall economic conditions, and considering the slowdown in local household income growth, deteriorating business confidence, and government fiscal deficits, the current downward trend in the property market is unlikely to see a significant reversal.
Relevant data shows that currently, the unsold completed housing inventory in Hong Kong is still at its highest level in twenty years; in the first 7 months of this year, the median household income in Hong Kong increased by 2.1% year-on-year, far below the 5.3% growth in the same period last year.
Bullish factors from the stock market and rate cuts are also facing challenges, as the recent pullback in the Hong Kong stock market over the past two days has weakened investor confidence. Due to the non-farm payroll data in September significantly exceeding expectations, bets on a substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve have also been scaled back.
Editor/Lambor
