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凯莱英(002821):公司持续回购彰显信心 未来有望逐渐恢复增长

Gloria Ying (002821): The company's continued repurchases show confidence that growth is expected to gradually resume in the future

Swhy Research ·  Oct 10, 2024 07:36

Incidents:

On October 8, 2024, Gloria Ying announced the progress of share repurchase. As of September 30, 2024, the total number of shares repurchased by the company through centralized bidding through a special securities repurchase account was 12,300,701 shares, accounting for 3.5976% of the company's total A share capital. The highest transaction price was 102.00 yuan/share, and the minimum transaction price was 71.65 yuan/share. The total amount paid was 999,644,601.56 yuan (excluding transaction fees).

Key points of investment:

The company's buyback shows confidence. Previously, the company reviewed and passed the “Proposal on the Company's Share Repurchase Plan” in February. The company will use centralized bidding transactions to repurchase the company's A shares from the secondary market. The total capital for the repurchase of shares will not be less than RMB 600 million (inclusive), and not more than RMB 1200 million (inclusive); the repurchase price will not exceed RMB 157 per share. The 2023 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders was held in June 2024 to review and approve the 2023 equity distribution plan. The company implemented dividends, share transfers, capital reserve capital transfers, stock splitting, stock reduction, allotment and other exemption matters during the share repurchase period. From the date of stock price exemption, the repurchased share price was adjusted accordingly and promptly disclosed in accordance with the relevant regulations of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The upper limit of the adjusted repurchase price is 155.27 yuan/share, effective from June 28, 2024 (excluding dividend date). This buyback shows the company's confidence in operating.

Excluding the impact of large orders, the small molecule business grew steadily. According to the company's semi-annual report, the company's small molecule business achieved revenue of 2.195 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.49% after excluding the impact of large orders, and the gross profit margin of the small molecule business in the first half of the year was 47.19%.

The company delivered 43 commercialization projects, added 9 additional commercialization projects, and achieved revenue of 1.396 billion yuan, an increase of 8.82% over the previous year after excluding the impact of large orders.

New orders were plentiful, and improvements continued from month to month. According to the company's semi-annual report, the company's new orders increased by more than 20% year on year, and there was a significant month-on-month increase in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Among them, the growth rate of customer orders from the European and American markets exceeded the company's overall order growth rate. As of the disclosure date of the semi-annual report, excluding the confirmed operating income of the semi-annual report, the total number of orders in the company was 0.97 billion US dollars.

Profit forecasting and investment ratings. Affected by the slump in global investment and financing, R&D demand fluctuated. We lowered the company's 24-year net profit forecast to be 1.038 billion yuan (original value 3.395 billion yuan), and added 25-26 net profit forecasts to 1.248 and 1.503 billion yuan, corresponding PE was 29, 24, and 20 times respectively. We selected Kanglong Chemical, Tiger Pharmaceuticals, and Pharmaceutical Stone Technology as comparable companies. The average PE is 35 times. Gloria Ying still has room to rise, so we maintain a “gain” rating.

Risk warning: Drug R&D investment has been drastically reduced, downstream product sales fall short of expectations, company production capacity investment falls short of expectations, exchange rate fluctuations, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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