Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Posts On X "iPhone 16 Shipment Updates; 1. Assembly Orders Almost Remain Unchanged. Suppliers Had Been Asked to Continue Producing Two Pro Models During China's National Day Holiday, Indicating That Demand for the Pro Models Has Generally Met Expectations so Far. 2. Some Component Orders for Mid-November Onwards Have Been Slightly Reduced (Mainly for the 16 Base Model and 16 Plus), but by Less Than 3-5%, Which Is Essentially Negligible...."

1. Assembly orders almost remain unchanged. Suppliers had been asked to continue producing two Pro models during China's National Day holiday, indicating that demand for the Pro models has generally met expectations so far.

2. Some component orders for mid-November onwards have been slightly reduced (mainly for the 16 base model and 16 Plus), but by less than 3-5%, which is essentially negligible.

3. Demand for the 16 base model and 16 Plus remains lackluster compared to last year.

4. The 16 Pro's shipments are similar to last year's 15 Pro, but it's worth noting that the current shipping times for the 16 Pro are shorter than those of the 15 Pro.

5. The next focus will be the impact on U.S. market demand/shipments after Apple Intelligence becomes available in late October.

6. I maintain my previous production estimate for the iPhone 16 at 88-89 million units for 4Q24, slightly lower than last year's 90-91 million units.