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连续第六个交易日下跌!黄金多头要小心了?

The sixth consecutive trading day has seen a decline! Should gold bulls be cautious?

Golden10 Data ·  Oct 9 21:51

The hot gold trade seems to be entering a retracement phase, pay attention to this key turning point...

The hot gold trade is experiencing some pullback. On Wednesday, the gold price fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, hovering near the two-week low touched in the previous trading day, as market participants reduced their expectations of a substantial interest rate cut and shifted their focus to the Fed meeting minutes and inflation data.

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StoneX Chief Market Strategist Kathryn Rooney Vera pointed out, "Gold is very attractive. I believe people are definitely starting to hedge risks, but now the gold rally is starting to appear 'exhausted,' I also predict that there will be some pullbacks and some profits taken."

Gold is one of the best performing assets this year. So far this year, the price of gold has surged by 27%, above $2,600 per ounce. On September 26, the price of gold hit a historical new high of $2,694 per ounce. In comparison, the S&P 500 index has risen by 20% this year.

There are many factors driving the sharp increase in gold demand, such as geopolitical and economic instability, which often trigger demand for gold in the market.Its price has soared to a historic high, closely related to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.In addition, some experts point out that the weakening dollar and the Fed's inclination towards rate cuts further support the price of gold.

UBS Group analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, "The market is currently awaiting the upcoming inflation data from the USA. Since it was announced last weeknon-farm payroll data, the market has been discussing whether we are in a landing or non-landing scenario.But after the bursting of the internet bubble and the Fed's rate cut in 2001, the ROI dropped by more than 10%.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting will be released at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data to be released on Thursday and Friday respectively.

OANDA market analyst Zain Vawda said, "A significant increase in inflation could change the current situation for gold. However, considering geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty, we may continue to see gold trading within a range."

However, it is worth noting that one of the potential drivers for gold now seems to have added - the popular warehouse club giant Costco's sale of gold bars.

Although Costco is known for offering consumers the ability to purchase large quantities of paper products, garbage bags, food, and housewares, Costco has been selling 1-ounce gold bars to its members since last fall. Since its launch, the product seems to be performing well as consumers are looking for the simplest way to access appreciating assets.

Costco's Chief Financial Officer stated in a recent earnings conference call, "The sustained strong performance of gold bar sales is a key driver of this quarter's earnings report," with sales achieving "double-digit growth."

Analysts at Wells Fargo & Co recently estimated that Costco may sell $100 million to $200 million worth of gold bars per month. Actual sales may be higher, as Costco limits purchases to warehouse club members, with each member restricted to buying 5 bars. Gold has been very successful for Costco to the extent that the company is now expanding into platinum bars.

Traditionally, demand for physical gold has been driven by key financial participants such as central banks, rather than companies like Costco. Rooney Vera said, "We used to talk about China, Saudi Arabia, Russia buying gold, but recently the demand has expanded to include buyers who are insensitive to price. They are becoming increasingly unwilling to buy government bonds and are more willing to purchase gold."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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