According to Financial Intelligence, spot gold has been rising since the end of 2022, with an increase of about 13% last year and another 27% year-to-date. However, analysis from Bank of America on gold ETFs shows that retail investors have missed this astonishing surge. According to data from Bank of America, gold ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of $24 billion since reaching a peak in October 2020.

Bank of America pointed out that retail investors have missed the rise in gold for the first time since the inception of the world's largest physically backed gold ETF - SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US). The SPDR Gold ETF manages around 876 tons of physical gold, worth over $74 billion.

The chart shows that the cumulative inflow of funds into gold ETFs peaked in October 2020. That year, amidst the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, market participants flocked to safe assets like precious metals. However, since October 2020, gold ETFs have seen outflows totaling $24 billion. During this period, spot gold rose by 39.4%. Meanwhile, the SPDR Gold ETF rose by 37.6%.

By the end of September, spot gold hit a historic high above $2,700 per ounce. In 2023, uncertainty over Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks boosted the price of gold. In 2024, the eventual Fed rate cuts further bolstered the price of gold. Analyst Dani Schijveschuurder from Seeking Alpha emphasized that despite a return rate of about 34% for the stock market (S&P 500 Index) in the past three years, gold's increase has been around 50.5%.

In addition, according to analyst Real Investments from Seeking Alpha, if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 132.8%, investors should expect trouble for the US government, prompting them to buy gold. Data from the U.S. Debt Clock shows that as of the third quarter, the US debt-to-GDP ratio is 129.6%, but it is expected to reach 133.80% by the first quarter of 2026.

Real Investments wrote last Friday: "The weakening of the US dollar will pose a significant challenge to the US government's efforts to finance its debt through the sale of bonds. This will lead to increased borrowing costs, reduced demand, and potential economic consequences. Needless to say, a weaker US dollar will also be a strong driver for the price of gold."

World Gold Council: Inflow of gold ETF has increased for the fifth consecutive month.

In this context, investors seem to be chasing the uptrend. According to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC) on Tuesday, global physically-backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw funds inflow for the fifth consecutive month in September, primarily due to an increase in holdings by funds listed in North America. Gold ETFs store physical gold for investors and are one of the key factors driving demand for precious metal investments.

In September, the inflow of funds for gold ETF reached 18.4 metric tons, equivalent to 1.4 billion US dollars, leading to a total holding of global gold ETFs rising to 3200 metric tons. WGC's research report indicated that the increase in gold prices and recent fund inflows drove the total managed assets to a monthly peak of $270.9 billion at the end of September.

WGC also estimates that global gold trading volume rose by 7% month-on-month in September, reaching $259 billion USD per day, whileOTCthe average daily trading volume in the over-the-counter (OTC) market increased by 10%, reaching $176 billion USD.

With gold prices rising by 28% this year and expectations of future rate cuts in the USA strengthening, speculators' net long positions on COMEX increased by 6% to 976 metric tons at the end of September, reaching the highest level since February 2020.