首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级。预计2024-2026年EPS为0.56/0.60/0.66元，同比+6%/+8%/+9%，结合绝对估值法和相对估值法，考虑到地产政策对实际销量的拉动具有不确定性，基于谨慎性原则，给予公司目标价9.5 元，“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The promotion of integrated and integrated strategies on the category side is expected to drive up customer unit prices, and the declining channel on the channel side is expected to continue to bring in new volume.
Key points of investment:
Covered for the first time, a “gain” rating was given. EPS is expected to be 0.56/0.60/0.66 yuan for 2024-2026, +6%/+8%/+9%. Combined with the absolute valuation method and the relative valuation method, considering that real estate policies are uncertain about the impact of real estate policies on actual sales, the company is given a target price of 9.5 yuan and an “increase in weight” rating based on the principle of prudence.
Purchase restrictions were lifted in Guangzhou on September 29, and other cities are expected to advance further, which is expected to stabilize the volume and price of real estate. Furthermore, it was announced on the 24th that interest rates on stock mortgages will be lowered, which is beneficial to the improvement of the production side, and individual household appliance stocks in the post-cycle real estate market, which have surpassed the decline, ushered in an opportunity to rebound. On September 24, the State Information Office held a press conference: 1) Announced. 5 Reduce interest rates on existing mortgages and unify the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages. Guide commercial banks to lower interest rates on existing mortgages to close to interest rates on newly issued loans. The average decline is expected to be about 0.5 percentage points. Unify the minimum down payment ratio for first and second home loans, and reduce the minimum down payment ratio for two-home loans at the national level from the current 25% to 15%. There is a strong correlation between the sales performance of kitchen appliances and the real estate side.
As the real estate easing policy continues to be implemented, it is expected to revitalize overall demand in the post-cycle market. The home appliance sector is expected to continue to experience a double hit from Davis, and companies in the post-cycle related sectors are expected to make up for the rise.
Integration and integration have become the main trend in the industry, and the company's new products are starting a second growth curve. In the downward cycle of the industry, using integrated and integrated products to increase customer unit prices has undoubtedly become an important gripper for various enterprises. The company's integrated cooking center was launched in less than a year, with sales of about 36 million in 2023. It is expected to continue to contribute more as the company's marketing investment and new products increase; the water heater industry is growing steadily, and the company has been deeply involved in the gas field for many years. In the process of replacing electric heating with heat, the product matrix is gradually improved, and it is expected that it will continue to improve in the future; at the same time, the company's offline channels are retail-oriented, and a “sales and operation center” “channel operation center” has been set up “Centers” and “retail management centers” improve management accuracy, encourage an increase in the proportion of stores directly managed by agents, and gradually convert second-level dealers with weak operating capabilities to operators. Flattening the distribution hierarchy is expected to improve overall operational efficiency.
Catalysts: Real estate easing policies are being promoted at an accelerated pace, and the company's sales of new products have exceeded expectations.
Risk warning: Risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; increased market competition; subsequent sales of kitchen appliances put some pressure on subsequent kitchen appliance sales after completion.
