Key points of investment

In September 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 21,352 new vehicles, up 39% year on year and 52% month on month. Xiaopeng Motors delivered a total of 21,352 new cars in September, a record high in single month deliveries.

With 2024Q3, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 46,533 new vehicles, an increase of 16% over the previous year.

From January to September, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 98,561 new cars. Overall, in January-September, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 98,561 new cars, compared with 81,443 in the same period last year, an increase of 21% over the previous year. With 2024Q3, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 46,533 new vehicles, an increase of 16% over the previous year. In September, the monthly active user penetration rate of XNGP Smart Driving in urban areas reached 83%. The AI Tianji XOS 5.3 domestic OTA was launched on September 25, achieving a total of 32 feature updates and 38 performance upgrades.

New cars continue to advance in the direction of intelligence, and overseas markets continue to advance. 1) In terms of a new car, Xiaopeng's new model P7+ will be released on October 10, 2024, making it the world's first “AI car”. The new car will be equipped with the AI Hawkeye Vision Solution, which has increased recognition speed by 40% and effective visual perception information by 8 times. In September, the X9 610 long-range max version of the all-electric 7-seat MPV X9 610 was officially launched. The price was 0.3798 million yuan. The Xiaopeng G9 650 four-wheel drive high-performance Pro was launched, and the official price was 0.3099 million yuan. 2) In terms of going overseas, Xiaopeng G9, G6, and P7 were launched in Madrid and Lisbon in September, officially entering the Spanish and Portuguese markets. In October, Xiaopeng will be exhibiting at the Paris Motor Show, bringing AI Tianji XOS 5.4.0 and the next generation smart cockpit.

Profit forecast and investment rating: We maintain the company's 2024-2026 operating income forecast of 38.7/74.2/109 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of -5.69/ -2.42/2.72 billion yuan, respectively; corresponding to the 2026 EPS of 1.43 yuan, considering the company's leading level of intelligent driving in the industry and continuing future competitiveness, we maintain the company's “buy” rating.

Risk warning: The price war in the passenger car industry exceeded expectations; the recovery in terminal demand fell short of expectations; the pace of introduction of L3 autonomous driving policies fell short of expectations.