Most readers would already be aware that Aflac's (NYSE:AFL) stock increased significantly by 25% over the past three months. Since the market usually pay for a company's long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company's key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. Specifically, we decided to study Aflac's ROE in this article.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Aflac is:
21% = US$5.5b ÷ US$26b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.21.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.
Aflac's Earnings Growth And 21% ROE
To start with, Aflac's ROE looks acceptable. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 13% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. This probably laid the ground for Aflac's moderate 8.6% net income growth seen over the past five years.
Next, on comparing Aflac's net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 10% over the last few years.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. What is AFL worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether AFL is currently mispriced by the market.
Is Aflac Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
Aflac's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 21% (implying that it retains 79% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business.
Besides, Aflac has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 32% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected increase in the payout ratio explains the expected decline in the company's ROE to 13%, over the same period.
Summary
On the whole, we feel that Aflac's performance has been quite good. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a sizeable growth in its earnings. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
