A week ago, Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (NASDAQ:APOG) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.0% to hit US$342m. Apogee Enterprises also reported a statutory profit of US$1.40, which was an impressive 20% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Apogee Enterprises after the latest results.
Following last week's earnings report, Apogee Enterprises' three analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$1.35b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 4.8% to US$4.98. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.73 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 14% to US$83.00. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Apogee Enterprises at US$91.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$75.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Apogee Enterprises' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 1.4% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.5% per year. It's pretty clear that Apogee Enterprises' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Apogee Enterprises' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Apogee Enterprises going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Apogee Enterprises that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
