The Zhitong Finance App learned that some liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects launched a few years ago due to a surge in expected demand have been continuously delayed, which may lead to the continuation of the global energy crisis. Delays in LNG projects from the US to Mozambique can hardly immediately ease the problem of high gas prices, although investments of more than 200 billion US dollars should have turned the LNG market into an oversupply state as early as 2025.

For some countries, new gas supplies are not being developed fast enough. Since the energy crisis caused the German manufacturing industry to struggle two years ago, the German economy has not experienced two consecutive quarters of growth. Although Europe has experienced two unusually mild winters in recent years, temperatures are expected to be lower in some regions this year, which may increase competition between Europe and Asia in purchasing LNG and cause supply shortages in countries that cannot afford this fuel. Furthermore, new buyers are joining the competition for LNG, and Egypt became a net importer of LNG this year after facing production issues and an extremely hot summer.

Ira Joseph, a researcher at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy (Center on Global Energy Policy), said, “The market is trying to establish unprecedented new production capacity in a short period of time. It's not easy to achieve.”

Energy strategist Florence Schmit at Rabobank (Rabobank) said that next year's gas consumption is likely to be higher than this year, partly because Asia's electricity and transportation industry is gradually shifting to natural gas. She added that any increase in supply in the second half of 2025 may be too late to keep up with growing demand.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for LNG production growth in 2025 in a recent report last week. The agency predicts that by 2025, global gas production will rise to slightly below the level of 580 billion cubic meters, below the previous forecast of more than 600 billion cubic meters.

Research firm Wood Mackenzie pointed out that next year's increase in natural gas production will be limited, and the company lowered its current estimate for additional supply by about 16% from the six-month estimate. Wood Mackenzie analyst Lucas Schmitt said, “This is still a significant annual increase, so downward pressure on gas prices is still a key theme in 2026. However, due to delays in the project, the expected price drop was less pronounced than anticipated earlier this year.”

Although the current European gas benchmark price has dropped significantly from its peak in 2022, it is still about double what it was before the energy crisis. Russia's interruption of pipeline gas supply to Europe is one reason, and European buyers competing with buyers from all over the world for LNG goods is also a reason why European gas prices are high.

More importantly, demand for LNG is expected to rise sharply by the end of this decade as the AI boom increases demand for data centers known as “power-eating giants.” McKinsey expects AI demand to account for 5% of Europe's electricity demand by 2030. BlackRock expects energy consumption in the Asia-Pacific region to increase by about 50% over the next ten years. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that by 2030, the US electricity sector's demand for natural gas may increase 30% from current levels.

As one of Europe's largest LNG suppliers, the US is unlikely to add more export facilities to currently approved projects due to rising construction costs and regulatory challenges. Qatar, another major LNG producer, plans to increase LNG exports by more than 80% by 2030, but it will be several years before the first batch of additional supplies is produced. Meanwhile, some older LNG production facilities are facing declining production.

Mark Simons, head of gas and electricity supply at Total (TTE.US), recently said: “We haven't seen any signs of an increase in LNG supply, but demand for LNG has been rising.” “The market is quite tight, so European gas prices are very high, and traders are worried about what the winter will be like.”

However, for global oil and gas giants such as Total, the current supply and demand situation means that natural gas prices will remain high for a longer period of time, which will support the profit margin of natural gas transactions. When talking about the current level of gas prices, Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne bluntly stated, “The market is good right now.”

Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee, a Sydney research firm, said: “If gas demand continues to increase, driven by macroeconomic improvements and new demand nodes such as data centers, then the 2027 and 2028 oversupply may completely disappear.”