该行在周二发布的一份报告中称，在没有重大干扰的情况下，本季度油价可能会稳定在当前水平附近。Goldman Sachs' report on Tuesday, October 8th, pointed out that the geopolitical risk premium indicator in the oil market slightly declined this week. The bank believes that, without major disruptions, oil prices may stabilize around the current level this quarter. However, Goldman Sachs still expects Brent crude oil prices to increase by $10 to $20 per barrel from current levels in the future.
On October 8th, according to Caixin's report by Zhou Ziyi, Goldman Sachs mentioned that the geopolitical risk premium indicator in the oil market slightly dropped this week.
Traders, weighing the situation development of the Middle East conflict and persistent bearish demand expectations, have seen oil prices in the Asian market beginning to stabilize. As of the time of publication, the latest trading price of Brent crude oil futures was $76.94 per barrel, down by 0.31%.
The bank stated in a report released on Tuesday that, without significant disruptions, oil prices may stabilize around the current level this quarter.
Goldman Sachs also noted in the report that last week, the implied volatility of call options surged to mid-April levels, while Brent's existing implied volatility was approaching the highest level in nearly a year, but both have since fallen. Market uses implied volatility to estimate the likelihood of future price changes.
However, Goldman Sachs still predicts that in the event of disruption in Iranian oil production and uncertainty in the developing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, Brent crude oil prices could increase by $10 to $20 per barrel from current levels.
The bank pointed out in a report last week, "Pricing in the options market indicates about a 5% chance of a $20 per barrel increase in oil prices."
The bank also estimated, "Assuming an interruption of 2 million barrels per day in Iranian oil supply lasting 6 months, with OPEC swiftly filling the gap, Brent crude oil prices could temporarily peak at $90. If OPEC does not fill the gap, Brent crude oil prices could rise to around $95 by mid-2025."
Another scenario envisioned by Goldman Sachs: assuming continued disruption of 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil supply, for example, due to increased enforcement of sanctions, with OPEC gradually making up for the shortfall, Brent crude oil prices could peak at around $85, while if OPEC does not make up for the shortfall, Brent crude oil prices could peak at around $95 in 2025.
Editor / jayden
