$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Will hold the highly anticipated Robotaxi conference on October 10th local time (10:00 am on October 11th Beijing time), announcing its long-delayed self-driving taxi.

Musk once said this will go down in history and hyped that it could be the company's biggest event ever. Some have posted that this will be the most important moment for Tesla since the launch of the Model 3, to which Musk responded positively: yes.

The event, originally scheduled for August 8th, has been postponed multiple times, building up suspense. When the delay news came out, it had a significant impact on Tesla's stock, illustrating the market's anticipation for this event.

As investors, undoubtedly, what they are looking forward to the most is what impact this press conference will have on the stock price.

In fact, Tesla's important product launches have always resulted in significant stock price fluctuations.

Within 5 days after the debut of Model 3 in March 2016, Tesla's stock price rose by 12%; after the humanoid robot Optimus officially appeared at AI Day in 2022, Tesla's stock price fell by 16% in 5 days. On September 5, 2024, Musk announced that limited production of Optimus would start next year, resulting in a sudden rise in stock price of over 4%.

However, looking over a longer timeline, Tesla's stock price generally experiences a significant increase within a year of a new product launch event.

From the overnight options chain, both bulls and bears are in a tense state. As of the expiry date on October 11 (which is after the meeting on October 10), the Call transactions at the strike prices of $250 and $245 are leading the pack, with 0.04 million and 0.037 million contracts traded respectively; while on the same day, the Puts at the strike prices of $240 and $242.5 are also seeing funds being snatched up, with 0.024 million and 0.021 million contracts traded respectively.

Renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities expressed that the potential rise in Tesla's stock price depends on the "visibility of positive contributions beginning," along with the "ease of understanding and acceptance of the innovative business model by investors" as two major factors.

What is the market expecting?

Some analysts point out that while Robotaxi Day may seem like a launch event for autonomous driving technology, in reality Musk needs to convince investors during this event that Tesla is a "technology company" rather than an "auto manufacturer".

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney believes that this event has two main highlights: the timeline for the commercialization of Tesla's Robotaxi, covering technology maturity, operations, and regulatory details; and the possibility of Tesla concurrently unveiling the low-cost Model 2 at the event with a price of 0.025 million dollars, or disclosing more details.

• Cybercab

One of the most important expectations people have for Tesla in this event is to see a prototype of its self-driving taxi (Robotaxi) displayed. Musk previously mentioned that this vehicle might be named Cybercab.

Based on the spy photos released on social media platforms, Tesla's Robotaxi could potentially be a small two-door, two-seater vehicle, featuring the same elongated taillights as the Cybertruck, and possibly equipped with functions like automatic charging, disinfection, and fleet management. According to previous reports, this model is expected to be equipped with Tesla's latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology.

Elon Musk mentioned during Tesla's Q2 earnings call that the deployment time for Robotaxi could be by the end of this year, at the latest next year.

Market expectations suggest that in order to advance the commercialization of Robotaxi, Tesla may announce a partnership with Uber. Additionally, Tesla might collaborate with McDonald's to use Robotaxi for delivery service. This speculation arises from McDonald's recent post stating, "The conversation will start on 10.10," to which Musk replied with a laughing-crying emoji.

It is worth noting that the market believes mere technological demonstrations are not enough to dispel market doubts. Tesla also needs to clearly articulate its commercial strategy for autonomous taxi services to alleviate investors' concerns about long-term profitability.

• Optimus

The market widely believes that the official theme for Robotaxi Day is "We, Robot," indicating the possibility of seeing the latest updates on Tesla's humanoid robot project. People are eagerly anticipating the upcoming event to witness the latest progress of Optimus, especially in terms of its applications and technical capabilities.

• Model 2

In addition to Robotaxi itself, investors are also focusing on whether tesla will introduce a more affordable new Model 2 in this event.

The affordable version of Model 2 (starting at less than 0.03 million dollars) is expected to expand tesla's potential market, while tesla's sales have already shown a softening trend.

How does Wall Street look at this?

Morgan Stanley, one of Wall Street's big banks known as the 'Tesla super-bull', is bullish on Tesla due to the revenue potential of Tesla's Robotaxi and the substantial subscription income that FSD may bring. Recently, Morgan Stanley reiterated its 'shareholding' rating for Tesla, with a target price of as high as $310 within the next 12 months, ranking as the highest target price on Wall Street.

It is worth noting that the bank previously stated that the launch of Robotaxi symbolizes Tesla's shift towards hardcore AI and robot technology in its business model. Morgan Stanley also predicts that by 2030, Tesla's mobility service revenue will reach $17 billion.

It is worth noting that Deutsche Bank, which has been pessimistic about Tesla's stock price trends in the long term, also unusually released a research report on Tesla's stock price. The bank resumed its 'buy' rating on Tesla and listed it as the top stock in the auto industry, as opposed to its long-term 'neutral' and 'shareholding' ratings for Tesla. The bank also announced the resumption of tracking Tesla's target price, giving Tesla a target price of as high as $295 within the next 12 months.

Cathie Wood, known as the 'number one fan of Tesla', believes Tesla's market cap could exceed $8 trillion. Ark Invest, led by 'Mooer' Cathie Wood, recently updated its target price for Tesla, with Ark expecting Tesla's stock price to reach $2600 by 2029. Ark's strong bullish view on Tesla's stock price is mainly based on the expectation that by 2029, nearly 90% of Tesla's market cap and profits will be attributed to the Robotaxi unmanned taxi network built on an incredibly powerful AI supercomputer system.

In an article for Barron's Magazine, author Al Root wrote that Tesla is poised to reclaim its position as one of the seven giants of the US stock market, or to become an ordinary auto manufacturer and compete with dozens of brands for market share in the electric vehicle market. The outcome will be revealed on October 10th.

Some believe that the success of Robotaxi Day event largely depends on Musk.

Tesla bears believe Musk is shifting investors' focus, diverting attention from larger issues such as declining sales, increased competition, and decreased profitability of electric autos.

In addition, investors need to be vigilant because since October, several Tesla executives have announced their resignations, including four of Musk's direct subordinates.

The market generally believes that Robotaxi Day is not only a technical competition, but also an important declaration for Tesla in market positioning, innovation capability, and future development strategy. If this opportunity is successfully seized, Tesla will be able to consolidate its leadership position in the global mobility sector; otherwise, it may face greater market scrutiny.

Tesla will hold a Tesla Robotaxi launch event at 10:00 on October 11th Beijing time. Welcome mooers to watch the live broadcast~

Editor/Somer