Afternoon review of Hong Kong stock market

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Hong Kong stocks weakened with all three major indices falling over 1%; china-affiliated brokerage and mainland real estate stocks led the declines, with China Merchants brokerage falling more than 11%, while Meituan rose over 2% against the trend.

Futu News · 16:31

富途资讯10月9日消息，港股今日走势震荡，三大指数午后冲高后转跌，科指午盘一度大涨近4%，收跌超1%；恒指、科指午后涨近2%，收跌均超1%。

截至收盘，港股上涨500只，下跌1775只，收平795只。

具体行业表现如下图：

板块方面，科网股走弱，商汤-W跌4.92%，快手-W跌3.42%，美团-W涨2.33%，小米集团-W跌1.69%，阿里巴巴-W跌1.53%，腾讯控股跌1.00%，百度集团-SW跌0.95%，京东集团-SW跌0.86%。

证券及经纪股走弱，申万宏源跌18.21%，东方证券跌13.87%，华泰证券跌13.42%，中信建投证券跌12.95%，招商证券跌11.06%，中金公司跌10.41%，中国银河跌8.98%，广发证券跌8.56%。

内房板块下挫，世茂集团涨超3%，富力地产涨超3%，华润置地跌近3%，万科企业跌近9%，远洋集团跌近6%，旭辉控股集团跌近5%，融创中国跌近4%。

内险股多股下行，友邦保险涨近1%，中国人寿跌超3%，中国平安跌超4%，中国太保跌超3%，新华保险跌近2%，众安在线跌近6%。

建筑材料股走弱，金隅集团跌10.71%，中国建材跌9.15%，亚洲水泥(中国)跌8.21%，中国联塑跌7.73%，华新水泥跌6.69%，华润建材科技跌6.06%，海螺水泥跌5.65%，西部水泥跌4.31%。

互联网医疗股走弱，叮当健康跌14.06%，阿里健康跌7.08%，众安在线跌5.75%，京东健康跌3.57%，平安好医生跌2.71%，麦迪卫康收平。

航运及港口股走弱，中远海能跌9.46%，中远海控跌7.80%，太平洋航运跌4.66%，东方海外国际跌4.14%，中远海运港口跌3.74%，招商局港口跌2.58%，中国外运跌2.30%，海丰国际跌1.33%。

光伏太阳能股走低，福莱特玻璃跌10.83%，协鑫科技跌9.30%，新特能源跌8.36%，信义能源跌5.43%，信义光能跌5.31%，信义玻璃跌5.11%，协合新能源跌3.57%，福耀玻璃跌1.60%。

个股方面， $美团-W (03690.HK)$ 涨超2%，美团境外版Keeta上线沙特首都利雅得。

$小鹏汽车-W (09868.HK)$涨4%，小鹏P7+将于明日首发，9月销量创历史新高。

$泡泡玛特 (09992.HK)$涨近2%，机构预计三季度销售增超60%，海外开店速度将加快。

$贝壳-W (02423.HK)$涨近1%，假期多地楼市升温，机构看好其第四季盈利上行潜力。

$中银香港 (02388.HK)$ 涨近2%，公司截至9月底南下内地客按年增四成。

$中国平安 (02318.HK)$ 跌超4%，公司今日遭主力大幅抛售9.24亿元，环比增加1094.89%。

$招商证券 (06099.HK)$ 跌超11%，招商证券创3年新高，获6家券商增持建议。

$老铺黄金 (06181.HK)$ 涨近4%，首予老铺黄金目标价205港元，列为中国珠宝行业中唯一推荐买入股份。

$宏光半导体 (06908.HK)$ 涨超17%，中信证券称港股半导体释放强烈信号，关注半导体核心资产估值重塑。

今日成交额TOP10

港股通资金

港股通方面，今日港股通（南向）净流出6.38亿港元。

机构观点：

高盛：预期哔哩哔哩盈利增长应可持续，将于2026年前实现10至15%净利润率。

高盛发表报告指，自9月26上调 $哔哩哔哩-W (09626.HK)$ 评级至“买入”以来，投资者的问题主要集中在《三国：谋定天下》的可持续性以及对第三季和第四季游戏收入预期；公司在视频平台和广告业务上的执行和变现能力；以及在波动的市场环境中公司的长期利润水平和合理估值。高盛指，哔哩哔哩股价近期波动，最近两日回调后，过去两周仍上涨50%，随着公司改善业务组合，预期自第三季起盈利增长应可持续，并于2026年前实现10至15%净利润率。

大摩：预计内房强劲销售势头未来数周持续，看好润地、华润万象生活等。

摩根士丹利发表报告指，内地主要发展商于黄金周的物业销售较预期理想，平均按年上升39%，占9月份销售的86%。当中， $华润置地 (01109.HK)$ 、 $绿城中国 (03900.HK)$ 、 $中国海外发展 (00688.HK)$ 、 $建发国际集团 (01908.HK)$ 及 $越秀地产 (00123.HK)$ 的表现最强劲，因为其土地储备质素较佳，以及在一线及二线城市有较多新的可售资源。该行预期，在市场气氛改善的情况下，强劲的销售势头在未来数周将会持续，但销售的持续性仍是支撑业界表现的关键。

花旗：予友邦目标价99港元，预测第三季新业务价值将增长13%。

$友邦保险 (01299.HK)$ 预料于本月底公布第三季度经营数据，花旗发表研报指，预计友邦将再次交出具韧性成绩，在香港市场持续稳固增长销售势头的推动下，按实际汇率计算，预测第三季新业务价值(VoNB)将增长13%，较第二季的按年增长15%略为放缓。虽然季度报告未会披露内涵价值及盈利相关数据，但花旗估计由于股市表现强劲，友邦第三季表现会显著改善，给予公司目标价99港元，对应2024年预测股价对内涵价值比率为约1.9倍，评级“买入”。

编辑/Wade

Futu news on October 9th, the Hong Kong stock market fluctuated today, the three major indexes rose in the afternoon and then fell, the science and technology index surged nearly 4% at midday, but closed down over 1%; the Hang Seng Index and the science and technology index surged nearly 2% in the afternoon but closed down over 1%.

As of the close, 500 Hong Kong stocks rose, 1775 fell, and 795 remained unchanged.

The specific industry performance is shown in the following figure:

In terms of sectors, network technology stocks weakened, SenseTime-W fell by 4.92%, Kuaishou-W fell by 3.42%, Meituan-W rose by 2.33%, Xiaomi Group-W fell by 1.69%, Alibaba-W fell by 1.53%, Tencent fell by 1.00%, Baidu-SW fell by 0.95%, JD-SW fell by 0.86%.

Securities and brokerage stocks weakened, Shenwan Hongyuan fell by 18.21%, Orient fell by 13.87%, Huatai Securities fell by 13.42%, CSC fell by 12.95%, China Merchants fell by 11.06%, CICC fell by 10.41%, China Galaxy fell by 8.98%, GF Securities fell by 8.56%.

Property sector declined, Shimao Group rose by over 3%, R&F Properties rose by over 3%, China Resources Land fell by nearly 3%, China Vanke fell by nearly 9%, Sino-Ocean Group fell by nearly 6%, CIFI Holdings fell by nearly 5%, Sunac China fell by nearly 4%.

Mainland insurance companies showed mostly declines, AIA rose by nearly 1%, China Life Insurance fell by over 3%, Ping An Insurance fell by over 4%, China Pacific Insurance fell by over 3%, New China Life Insurance fell by nearly 2%, ZhongAn Online fell by nearly 6%.

Building materials stocks softened, BBMG Corporation fell by 10.71%, CNBM fell by 9.15%, Asia Cement (China) fell by 8.21%, China Lesso fell by 7.73%, Huaxin Cement fell by 6.69%, CR Building Materials Technology fell by 6.06%, Conch Cement fell by 5.65%, Westchina Cement fell by 4.31%.

Shares in digital health weakened, Dingdang Health fell by 14.06%, Ali Health fell by 7.08%, Zhongan Online fell by 5.75%, JD Health fell by 3.57%, Ping An Good Doctor fell by 2.71%, and Mediwelcome held steady.

Shipping and port stocks weakened, Cosco Shipping Energy fell by 9.46%, Cosco Shipping Holdings fell by 7.80%, Pacific Basin fell by 4.66%, OOIL fell by 4.14%, Cosco Shipping Port fell by 3.74%, China Merchants Port fell by 2.58%, Sinotrans Limited fell by 2.30%, and SITC fell by 1.33%.

Photovoltaic solar energy stocks declined, Flat Glass fell by 10.83%, GCL Tech fell by 9.30%, Xinte Energy fell by 8.36%, Xinyi Energy fell by 5.43%, Xinyi Solar fell by 5.31%, Xinyi Glass fell by 5.11%, Concord NE fell by 3.57%, and Fuyao Glass fell by 1.60%.

In terms of individual stocks, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Rising over 2%, Meituan's overseas version, Keeta, launched in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$Increasing by 4%, Xpeng P7+ will debut tomorrow, achieving record high sales in September.

$POP MART (09992.HK)$Up nearly 2%, institutions predict sales growth of over 60% in the third quarter, and the pace of overseas store openings will accelerate.

$BEKE-W (02423.HK)$Up nearly 1%, the real estate market in many places heats up during the holidays, with institutions bullish on its profit potential in the fourth quarter.

$BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK)$ Up nearly 2%, the company's mainland clients in the mainland increased by 40% year-on-year as of the end of September.

$PING AN (02318.HK)$ Falling over 4%, the company experienced heavy block orders selling 0.924 billion yuan today, an increase of 1094.89% compared to the previous period.

$CMSC (06099.HK)$ Falling more than 11%, China Merchants Securities reached a 3-year high, receiving buy recommendation from 6 brokerage firms.

$LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$ Rising nearly 4%, the first golden target price for Lao Pu is HK$205, making it the only recommended buy in the Chinese jewelry industry sector.

$HG SEMI (06908.HK)$ With an increase of over 17%, CITIC Securities stated that the Hong Kong semiconductor sector is sending a strong signal, focusing on the restructuring of core semiconductor asset valuations.

TOP 10 trading volume today

Hong Kong Stock Connect Fund

In terms of the Hong Kong stock connect, today the net outflow of Southbound Hong Kong stock connect was 0.638 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Institutional perspective:

Goldman Sachs: Expects Bilibili's profit growth to be sustainable, targeting a net income margin of 10-15% by 2026.

Goldman Sachs released a report stating that since raising the rating to 'buy' on September 26 $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ Investors' concerns have mainly focused on the sustainability of 'Three Kingdoms: The World Will Be Determined,' the expectations for third and fourth quarter game revenue; the company's execution and monetization capabilities in the video platform and advertising business; and the company's long-term profit level and fair valuation in a volatile market environment. Goldman Sachs pointed out that Bilibili's stock price has been volatile recently, with a 50% increase in the past two weeks, despite two recent days of decline, with the expected sustainable profit growth from the third quarter onwards as the company improves its business mix, and aiming to achieve a net income margin of 10-15% by 2026.

Morgan Stanley: Expects strong sales momentum in the mainland property market to continue in the next few weeks, bullish on Rendu and China Resources Mixc Life.

Morgan Stanley released a report stating that major mainland property developers had property sales during the Golden Week better than expected, averaging a 39% year-on-year increase, accounting for 86% of September sales. Among them, $CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$GREENTOWN CHINA (03900.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$C&D INTL GROUP (01908.HK)$ Nvidia. $YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123.HK)$ china res land showed the strongest performance because of its high-quality land reserves, as well as having more new saleable resources in first and second-tier cities. The bank expects that with the improvement of market sentiment, the strong sales momentum will continue in the coming weeks, but the sustainability of sales remains a key factor supporting the industry's performance.

Citigroup: AIA's target price is HKD 99, forecasting a 13% increase in new business value in the third quarter.

$AIA (01299.HK)$ Expected to release third-quarter business data at the end of this month, Citigroup released a research report indicating that AIA is expected to deliver resilient performance again. Driven by the steady growth in sales momentum in the Hong Kong market, calculated at actual exchange rates, the forecast for the third quarter's new business value (VoNB) will grow by 13%, slightly slower than the 15% year-on-year growth in the second quarter. Although the quarterly report will not disclose intrinsic value and profit-related data, Citigroup estimates that due to strong stock market performance, AIA's third-quarter performance will improve significantly, giving the company a target price of HKD 99, corresponding to a price-to-value ratio of about 1.9 times the forecasted share price for 2024, with a "buy" rating.

编辑/Wade

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