此外，企业对人工智能技术的采用速度低于预期，可能会导致微软相关收入无法达到市场预期。该行分析师还指出，随着微软加大对高性能计算组件的资本支出，2025财年的毛利率和EBITDA利润率可能会下降，预计资本支出将增加至630亿美元，同比增长14%，折旧费用预计将增加28%，达到290亿美元。Investment bank Oppenheimer has downgraded its rating on Microsoft's stocks from 'outperform large cap' to 'in line with large cap'.
According to the Intelligence Finance APP, investment bank Oppenheimer has downgraded its rating on Microsoft (MSFT.US) stocks from 'outperform large cap' to 'in line with large cap', mainly based on the determination that Microsoft's future income and profit expectations are too high. The main reasons for the downgrade include significant anticipated losses from Microsoft's AI partner OpenAI in the field of artificial intelligence, slow adoption of AI technology by enterprises, and the possibility of lower-than-expected related income.
Oppenheimer's analyst Timothy Holland announced this rating adjustment on Tuesday. They are concerned about the financial losses that Microsoft's AI partner OpenAI may bring in the field of artificial intelligence. OpenAI is expected to incur losses of about $5 billion this year, and may range from $2 billion to $3 billion by the fiscal year 2025, these potential losses will put pressure on Microsoft, which holds a 49% stake in it.
In addition, the slower-than-expected adoption of artificial intelligence technology by enterprises may result in Microsoft's related income failing to meet market expectations. The bank's analysts also pointed out that as Microsoft increases capital expenditures on high-performance computing components, gross margin and EBITDA profit margin in fiscal year 2025 may decrease, with capital expenditures expected to increase to $63 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, and depreciation expenses expected to increase by 28% to reach $29 billion.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, 2024, which may reduce the net interest income from Microsoft's $76 billion cash reserves. Analysts believe that due to increased depreciation and operating expenses related to AI investments, the market's financial performance expectations for Microsoft may decrease.
Despite these challenges, Microsoft's proactive pricing and bundling strategies may help alleviate some financial pressure. Currently, Microsoft's stock trading price is at the midpoint of a 5-year PE ratio range, approximately 25 to 35 times, but it may shift towards the lower end of that range.
