該行提及，雖然目前的漲勢只是復甦周期反彈高峰的一半，但估計牛市將繼續，儘管可能會出現偶爾回調。政策的積極變革可能會釋放消費潛力，帶來積極的財富效應，但這可能需要數個季度才會顯現。此外，工資仍然是家庭的主要收入來源，財政刺激措施是推動全面復甦的關鍵。China Merchants International Securities' report pointed out that in order to select winners in the current upward cycle, the bank conducted research on 28 Hong Kong/Mainland consumer brands. They analyzed the trading situations of these companies compared to the benchmark of the past two years, as well as tracking the situation compared to the last peak in the recovery cycle. The bank believes that supported by fundamental improvements, stocks with good profit quality will usher in another wave of revaluation opportunities in the next stage of rebound.
The bank believes that these stocks will see the maximum level of growth. Although the prospects are not as optimistic as outstanding stocks, these stocks still show a healthy growth trajectory, with valuations in the mid-range of the two-year average. The bank recommends 8 stocks with quality lag but potential for catching up, including China Resources Beer (00291.HK), Proya Cosmetics (603605.SH), Xtep (01368.HK), Maotai (600519.SH), Yili (600887.SH), Mengniu (02319.HK), Best Mart 360 (09987.HK), and Anta Sports (02020.HK).
In addition, the bank mentioned that Kingsco Biotechnology (02367.HK), Pop Mart (09992.HK), Miniso (09896.HK), and Prada (01913.HK) all have structural growth drivers, with clear profit prospects. Li Ning (02331.HK) is about to announce retail sales data as expected, making its current stock price very attractive and cannot be ignored.
The bank mentioned that although the current rally is only half of the rebound peak in the recovery cycle, it is estimated that the bull market will continue, although occasional corrections may occur. Positive policy changes may unleash consumer potential, bringing positive wealth effects, but this may take several quarters to manifest. In addition, wages continue to be the main source of income for households, and fiscal stimulus measures are key to driving comprehensive recovery.
Stocks | Rating | Target price (HKD)
Anta Sports (02020.HK) | Shareholding | 101.5 yuan
Li Ning (02331.HK) | Shareholding | 20 yuan
Xtep (01368.HK) | Shareholding | 6.8 yuan
Jiuzi Biotech (02367.HK) | Shareholding | $53 (Target Price Under Review)
Pak Shing (09987.HK) | Shareholding | $320
Haidilao (06862.HK) | Neutral | $12.4
Jiumaojiu (09922.HK) | Shareholding | $2.6 (Target Price Under Review)
China Res Beer (00291.HK) | Neutral | $26
Bud APAC (01876.HK) | Neutral | $10.1
Mengniu (02319.HK) | Neutral | $14.5
Kangshifu (00322.HK) | Neutral | $10.3
Uni-President (00220.HK) | shareholding | 8.3 yuan
