According to Zhu Tong Finance APP, aviation stocks continue to decline. As of the time of publication, Air China Limited (00753) fell by 5.96% to HK$3.79; China Southern Airlines (01055) fell by 4.14% to HK$3.01; China Eastern Airlines (00670) fell by 3.62% to HK$2.13; Cathay Pac Air (00293) fell by 1.14% to HK$7.82.

GTJA pointed out that considering the Golden Week peak travel and off-peak travel boosting passenger flow starting early, as well as the loosening base effect of ticket prices before the 2023 National Day holiday, the domestic oil-included ticket prices from September 28 to October 8 fell by nearly 10% compared to the same period last year, with a smaller decrease in ticket prices than market expectations. In 2023, airlines gradually recover aircraft fleet turnover and implement a price priority strategy, while in 2024, some airlines quickly recover passenger load factors with flexible revenue management and achieve new highs in passenger load factors during the National Day holiday, offsetting ticket price declines. It is expected that the future aviation supply and demand will continue to recover, and the ticket revenue performance in 2025 is worth looking forward to.

In addition, fuel costs account for nearly 40% of airlines' costs. The bank pointed out that the central oil price has decreased year-on-year, indicating that the pressure on supply and demand in the off-peak season of the fourth quarter may translate into a decrease in ticket prices, while good recovery in peak season supply and demand such as Spring Festival and summer peaks will likely show profits exceeding expectations, potentially catalyzing optimistic expectations. Recent short-term oil price fluctuations may affect investment sentiment, but the decrease in aviation fuel prices and long-term value may provide a contrarian opportunity.