On October 9, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market slightly declined, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ falling below the key level of $63,000, $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ breaking through the $2,500 level.
Key Focus
Goldman Sachs: Bitcoin has risen more than 40% so far this year, but gold outperforms in terms of risk-adjusted returns.
According to CoinDesk, Goldman Sachs analysis shows that Bitcoin has risen more than 40% this year, outperforming major stock indices, fixed income securities, gold, and even oil which recently rose due to geopolitical tensions. However, according to Goldman's data, its outstanding performance is not enough to compensate for its volatility. Bitcoin's volatility-adjusted returns so far this year are below 10%, far below the nearly 20% risk-adjusted returns of the leading gold industry. Gold has risen by 28% in absolute terms. The relatively lower risk-adjusted performance confirms the long-standing view of cryptocurrency skeptics that Bitcoin's volatility is too high to serve as a safe haven like gold.
Matrixport: Bitcoin income stabilizes after halving, mining stocks may see a rebound.
Matrixport released charts indicating that since the halving in April 2024, Bitcoin mining daily income has dropped significantly from $70 million to $31 million. However, mining stocks have shown relatively stable performance, slightly below Bitcoin but overall better than expected. With income gradually bottoming out, mining stocks may see a rebound. Many mining companies choose to hold Bitcoin inventory, reducing selling on exchanges to alleviate market pressure. This strategy not only provides shareholders with Bitcoin operational leverage, but also increases inventory leverage. Shareholders of Micro Strategy have achieved substantial returns using a similar strategy.
Crypto.com confirms receipt of Wells Notice from the U.S. SEC and has filed a lawsuit against the SEC.
According to official sources, Crypto.com has confirmed receiving a Wells Notice issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and has announced filing a lawsuit against the U.S. SEC. The Wells Notice indicates that SEC staff believe the company may have violated federal securities laws. Crypto.com states that the notice indicates that despite both parties stating that the next administration will promote the development of U.S. crypto technology in a more constructive and effective manner, the unauthorized and unfair enforcement activities of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission continue. Crypto.com's lawsuit argues that the SEC unilaterally expanded its jurisdiction beyond statutory limits and formulated an illegal rule, stating that almost all transactions of crypto assets are securities transactions, regardless of the method of sale, while similar transactions of Bitcoin and Ethereum are not.
As the network hash rate rises, Bitcoin mining revenue continues to decline in September.
According to The Block, in September, listed crypto mining companies experienced a third consecutive month of daily revenue decline, while the network difficulty increased, making the situation even more challenging. According to a report by JPMorgan, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network increased each month in the second quarter, reaching 643 EH/s in September, a 2% increase from August. At the same time, mining companies' revenue per EH/s decreased by 6% month-on-month, averaging $42,100. The total market value of 14 U.S. listed Bitcoin mining companies tracked by JPMorgan rose by 4% in September, reaching $21 billion. In September, MARA (formerly Marathon Digital Holdings) mined 705 Bitcoin, a 6% increase from August; the company did not sell any Bitcoin, currently totaling 26,842 BTC. Riot Platforms mined 412 BTC in September, a 28% increase from August, currently holding 10,427 BTC. CleanSpark mined 493 BTC in September, with a total holding of 8,049 BTC. Bitfarms mined 217 BTC in September, a 7% decrease from the previous month; the company sold 173 BTC but increased its holdings by 44 BTC, currently holding 1,147 BTC, valued at $73.4 million. TeraWulf mined 176 BTC in September with an average operating speed of 8.2 EH/s. Core Scientific mined 345 BTC in September, slightly lower than 358 BTC in August, and sold 370 BTC. While some mining companies experienced overall production growth, other companies like Cipher Mining took a different approach, selling 923 BTC in September while only mining 155 BTC. Hut 8 mined 85 BTC, with a total holding of 9,106 BTC.
Report: FTX repayments are not expected to have a super bullish impact on the crypto market.
According to Decrypt, PrestoLabs released a new report indicating that retail investors' enthusiasm or optimism for FTX's court-approved bankruptcy plan may be excessive. Analysts are skeptical whether the $16 billion cash repayment in the plan will flow back into the crypto market. PrestoLabs stated: 'It is premature to assume that creditors will directly reinvest cash back into the market. To make such a comprehensive assumption, some analysis of the composition of claimants is needed, and as far as we know, no one has publicly carried out such analysis yet.' The research company noted that repayments will begin within 60 days after the plan becomes 'effective,' but the specific effective date has not been determined. This timeline suggests that any potential market impact will not be immediate. Meanwhile, crypto data provider Kaiko indicated that although some assets like SOL, TON, and TRX have more than doubled in value since FTX's collapse, other assets face significant challenges. Kaiko pointed out that FTX holds overwhelming positions in certain tokens, holding 99% of MAPS tokens, 97% of OXY tokens, and 95% of Serum (SRM) tokens. These holdings pose particular problems during liquidation as they are likely to cause price drops. Earlier today, news came that the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware officially approved FTX's restructuring plan, which will pay approximately 119% of allowed claims to 98% of creditors within 60 days after it takes effect.
South Korean FSC official: The expected impact of the crypto market on financial stability will expand.
According to Chosun Biz, at the Seoul Fintech Week 2024, Lee Hyun-deok, Director of the Virtual Assets Supervision Bureau of the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of South Korea, emphasized that although the current impact of the crypto market on financial stability is still relatively limited, this impact is expected to intensify. He pointed out that recent crypto regulations introduced in South Korea may trigger further discussions on regulatory details, leading to regulatory uncertainty. This uncertainty could potentially impact innovation and development in the crypto sector.
QCP Capital: Maintaining a medium-term optimistic stance, expects election-related news to continue to drive crypto trends.
Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that the Chinese stock market failed to sustain its growth after a week-long holiday, as the government did not introduce new economic stimulus measures. The MSCI Asia-Pacific stock index recorded the largest drop in a month. Due to the impact of large-cap tech stocks and escalating geopolitical tensions, the US stock market also fell overnight, with the volatility index (VIX) rising to 22 points. Interestingly, crypto volatility remained stable, with front-end trading around 43%, 3 percentage points lower than the 7-day historical actual volatility. Bloomberg previously reported that since the end of September, Chinese investors may have sold USDT to fund stock purchases, while Bitcoin remained stable. With the fading momentum in the Chinese stock market, funds are expected to reallocate back to crypto, reflecting the increasing maturity of crypto as an alternative risky asset. With the upcoming earnings season and release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), there are short-term downside risks for the stock market, posing a challenge to its high valuation. The escalation of geopolitical tensions further complicates market outlook. However, QCP still maintains a medium-term optimistic stance, anticipating that election-related news will continue to drive crypto trends.Implied volatilityStandard Chartered Bank: If Trump is elected as the US president, Solana's price may increase fivefold by the end of 2025.
According to The Block, based on the current prices and the potential impact of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election, Standard Chartered Bank's Global Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoff Kendrick, predicts that by the end of 2025, Solana's price may increase fivefold, Ethereum may increase fourfold, and the value of Bitcoin may triple. He also stated that if Harris becomes president, he expects Bitcoin to outperform Ethereum, with Ethereum outperforming Solana. He added: "In dollar terms, we expect Ethereum's price to reach $7,000 by the end of 2025." Regardless of the outcome on November 5th, Kendrick expects Bitcoin's price to rise to $0.2 million by the end of 2025. Kendrick outlined the specific conditions needed to achieve his valuation forecast for Solana. He believes that the Trump administration is more supportive of the Solana ecosystem compared to the Harris administration. He said: "Under a Trump presidency, there is a greater possibility of launching a Solana ETF." Kendrick stated: "Indicators show a very bullish outlook for Solana, with throughput expected to increase 100 to 400 times." He emphasized that to achieve his valuation forecast for Solana, the network's throughput would need a significant increase. Kendrick pointed out that the new third-party validator client software Firedancer, designed to improve Solana's efficiency, needs to be operational. This software aims to increase transaction throughput to 1 million transactions per second. Additionally, he added that Solana would need to establish a dominant position in multiple sectors including finance, consumer services, and decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN), which typically have high throughput requirements.
South Korean FSC official: The expected impact of the crypto market on financial stability will expand.
ARK Invest transferred 2495 BTC out of the Bitcoin ETF, worth over 0.154 billion US dollars.
According to Arkham monitoring data, about seven hours ago, ARK Invest's spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund ARKB 21Shares Bitcoin ETF was transferred to two unknown addresses with a total of 2495 BTC, worth approximately 0.15492 billion US dollars.
Cryptocurrency mining companies listed in September saw a continuous decline in overall revenue for the third consecutive month.
In September, listed cryptocurrency mining companies experienced a third consecutive month of declining overall revenue, while the network difficulty increased, making the situation even more challenging. According to JPMorgan's report, the Bitcoin network's hash rate increased every month in the second quarter, reaching 643EH per second in September, a 2% increase from August. Meanwhile, miners' income per EH/s decreased by 6% month-on-month, averaging $42,100.
Editor/rice