中信证券发布研究报告称，在9月政治局会议之后三天，人民银行落地了各项房产金融支持政策。调整住房限购，降低交易税，降低首付比例的政策也在一线城市果断落地。这显示了推动房地产市场止跌目标的紧迫性。从一线城市开始，年内有望实现房价的止跌。若本轮政策未能充分实现止跌目标，预计政策的潜在空间依然广阔。Mainland real estate stocks fell back yesterday, and collectively rose in early trading today, as of the deadline for submission,$R&F PROPERTIES (02777.HK)$up 20.86%, at 1.97 Hong Kong dollars;$SHIMAO GROUP (00813.HK)$up 14.2%, at 1.85 Hong Kong dollars;$AGILE GROUP (03383.HK)$up 12.38%, at 1.18 Hong Kong dollars;$SUNAC (01918.HK)$Rising by 8.12%, closing at HK$2.53; $CIFI HOLD GP (00884.HK)$Increasing by 8.05%, closing at HK$0.47.
The latest data from the China Index Research Institute shows that the average subscription volume of new housing projects surveyed in most cities during the National Day holiday exceeded that of the entire month of September. Especially in first-tier cities, under the promotion of policy optimization, the number of visits and subscriptions to various projects has significantly increased, with better performance in Guangzhou and Shenzhen than in Beijing and Shanghai. Among them, the average subscription volume during the holiday period for monitored projects in Guangzhou and Shenzhen reached twice the level of the entire September, exceeding the subscription volume of the entire month of September in Beijing and Shanghai.
Looking ahead, Zhongzhi Research Institute believes that the current performance of the 'Silver Ten' at the beginning of the month has exceeded expectations, indicating a clear trend of market stabilization in core cities. Residential purchasing confidence is starting to recover, and it is expected that new policies will continue to take effect in the short term. The significant rebound in holiday subscription data is also expected to gradually be reflected in transaction data, with a significant increase in market sales expected in October.
CITIC Securities released a research report stating that three days after the September Political Bureau meeting, the People's Bank of China implemented various real estate financial support policies. Adjustments to housing purchase restrictions, reduction in transaction taxes, and lower down payment ratios were promptly implemented in first-tier cities. This demonstrates the urgency of achieving the goal of stabilizing the real estate market. Starting from first-tier cities, there is a possibility of achieving a halt to the decline in house prices within the year. If this round of policies fails to fully achieve the goal of stopping the decline, there is still ample potential space for policy adjustments.
Editor/Rocky
