周一，两个基准原油均上涨超过3%，创下8月下旬以来的最高水平，延续了上周的8%涨幅。这是逾一年来最大的单周涨幅，原因是人们担心敌对行动可能会扰乱中东地区的石油供应。Source: Jin10 Data
Some analysts believe that the current increase in oil prices is based solely on expectations rather than actual supply disruptions, and the likelihood of Israel attacking Iranian oil infrastructure is low.
Before the US market opened on Tuesday, oil prices plunged more than 3%. The market is waiting for Israel's response to last week's missile attack by Iran. Iran's attack last week caused oil prices to soar as people feared a wider conflict in the Middle East.
On Monday, both benchmark crude oil products rose by more than 3%, reaching their highest levels since late August, continuing the 8% increase from last week. This is the largest weekly increase in over a year, as concerns about hostile actions disrupting oil supplies in the Middle East persist.
However, oil prices plummeted significantly before the US market opened on Tuesday, both dropping over 3%. WTI crude oil fell to around $74 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell to around $78 per barrel.
Gaurav Sharma, an independent oil analyst in London, pointed out, "In the short term, oil prices may continue to rise until Israel's next steps are clear, but the drop in Brent crude oil prices indicates that oil prices rising to $80-82 per barrel will encounter resistance, as the uncertainty of demand and the possibility of oversupply cannot be easily eliminated."
The rise in oil prices began when Iran fired missiles at Israel on October 1. Israel vowed retaliation and stated it is considering various options, with Iran's oil facilities seen as potential targets for an attack.
Tamas Varga of the oil brokerage firm PVM stated, "The current rise in oil prices is based solely on expectations rather than actual supply disruptions. This upward trend is unlikely to continue, and claiming that Iran will be directly and ominously drawn into the conflict is irresponsible. The threat of Israeli attacks on Iran's oil infrastructure has not materialized yet."
Some analysts believe that the likelihood of Israel attacking Iran's crude oil infrastructure is small, and warn that if Israel focuses on other targets, oil prices may face significant downward pressure.
In addition, investors have been concerned that slow economic growth will curb rbob gasoline demand in Asia.
In the USA, Hurricane 'Milton' strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane on its way to Florida, forcing at least one oil & gas platform in the Gulf of Mexico to shut down on Monday.
Traders will also focus on the latest US crude oil inventory data, analysts expect EIA crude oil stocks to increase by 1.925 million barrels for the week ending October 4.
Editor / jayden