Bitcoin is once again being blocked at $64,000.

After briefly surging to $64,000, bitcoin seems to have encountered a temporary resistance, falling back above $62,000 this morning (8th), and currently experiencing a slight rebound, with a quote of $62,400. The uncertainties in macroeconomics and geopolitics continue to be unfavorable for short-term trends. Market expectations of a decrease in the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, alongside the beginning of the CPI and earnings season.

Why is bitcoin falling?

Uncertainties in the macro environment and geopolitics.

In the past 8 weeks, bitcoin has been unable to break through the $66,000 mark, mainly due to uncertainties in global economic growth, tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainties regarding the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

Furthermore, the strong US employment data in September exceeded expectations, reducing the possibility of an economic downturn, but also lowering the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

According to the CME FedWatch data, the market currently predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 2 basis points at the next FOMC rate meeting has plummeted from 40% two weeks ago to 0%.

A high interest rate environment will make investors more inclined to seek refuge, which is unfavorable for bitcoin prices. Additionally, China's latest economic stimulus measures have reduced the demand for alternative safe-haven assets, with the Hong Kong stock market index even reaching a 32-month high, while the S&P index has dropped 0.5% from its historical peak.

bitcoin futures are balanced between long and short positions, with ETF net outflows.

The annualized premium rate of bitcoin futures remains around 8%, indicating a relatively balanced relationship between long and short positions. In addition, since October 1, there has been a net outflow of 0.335 billion US dollars from bitcoin spot ETFs.

The United States CPI data will be released this week.

In addition to the above factors, the United States will also see earnings reports and heavyweight economic data this week, which may be a reason for investors to be more conservative. On October 10 and 11, the United States will respectively release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, both of which are important indicators of inflation that directly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

If CPI and PPI decline, indicating a slowing inflation rate, the Federal Reserve may consider further interest rate cuts, which would be favorable for stimulating economic growth.

According to market estimates, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in September may slow to 2.3%, with a monthly growth rate of 0.1%. However, due to the better-than-expected non-farm payroll data in September, market expectations for interest rate cuts this year have significantly decreased.

If inflation remains sticky and the non-farm payroll data in October is relatively strong, the Federal Reserve may pause its rate cut plans.

The US stock earnings season will kick off this week.

In addition to inflation data, this week will also mark the beginning of the US earnings season. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo & Co, and Blackrock, among other financial giants, will be the first to release their earnings reports, which not only directly impact the financial sector, but also serve as an indicator of the health of the US economy.

Due to Bitcoin's continued sensitivity to macroeconomic and geopolitical changes, this week's economic data and corporate earnings reports may have a significant impact on prices, so it is important to closely monitor market trends.