好于预期的美国经济数据导致市场降低了对美联储降息力度的预期，这支撑了美元，并金价带来了下行压力。交易员现在认为美联储下个月仅降息25个基点的可能性为86%。Bulls see the gold rally weakening and choose to take profits, while bears fear geopolitical storms. Where will the gold price go?
This year, gold is undoubtedly one of the most eye-catching assets. Fueled by expectations of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve and concerns about the weaponization of the US dollar by foreign governments, the price of gold has repeatedly hit new highs, becoming one of the best-performing assets in the first three quarters of this year, even outperforming US stocks.
But the frenzy will not continue endlessly. Over the past few weeks, gold has been in a sideways consolidation. Christopher Watling, Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, stated that rising US Treasury yields and a rebound in the US dollar have halted the rise in gold prices.
Better-than-expected US economic data has led the market to lower expectations for the extent of Fed rate cuts, supporting the US dollar and putting downward pressure on gold prices. Traders now believe there is an 86% chance that the Fed will only cut rates by 25 basis points next month.
The US dollar index is hovering near its highest level in seven weeks, making gold and silver priced in dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Peter A. Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, stated, "The strength of the US dollar is the current short-term resistance that has prevented gold from hitting new highs." However, he still believes that there is potential for gold prices to reach $2700 in the short term, and added, "Given the approaching US election, geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty have brought about a safe-haven demand, therefore the long-term target of $3000 remains valid."
Watling said, "In addition to the shifting (and dollar) outlooks, gold also faces downside risks from positions, emotions, and technical models."
He pointed out that speculative positions are very crowded, and the indicator measuring market sentiment is bullish.technical indicatorsAt or near the sell threshold.
CommodityFutures Trading Commission (CFTC)'s latest data shows that investors are significantly reducing their net short positions in US soybean, corn, and wheat contracts, easing bearish sentiment in the market.According to the data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last Friday, as of October 1, fund managers had reduced their net long positions in gold to a three-week low.
Ole Hansen, the Head of Commodity Strategy at Shengbao Bank, wrote in a report, 'Gold and silver have seen net selling as traders have been taking profits in these two seemingly weak precious metals following recent price rises. In the case of gold, it is worth noting that both long and short positions have decreased as recent short sellers worry about a tightening geopolitical situation, while long-term investors continue to liquidate their long positions.'
Watling believes, 'The inflation report this week and the upcoming US labor market data will be worth close attention, as these data may trigger further repricing of market expectations for the Fed interest rates.' He is referring to the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Thursday and the latest weekly initial jobless claims.
Elsewhere, the People's Bank of China paused the increase in gold reserves for the fifth consecutive month in September.
IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong stated that with gold prices nearing record highs, China may temporarily halt further hoarding of gold in the short term, but the overall trend of increasing gold reserves may continue.
