According to Caixin, on October 8th, as a series of heavyweight real estate policies were implemented before the National Day, including the central bank's reserve requirement cut and interest rate reduction, lowering down payment ratios, and the stabilization measures from the political bureau meeting, as well as the loosening of real estate controls in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, greatly boosting market confidence.

From the perspective of policy effectiveness, the real estate market in many places was hot during the National Day "Golden Week". According to data from Ke Rui, the subscription area in 22 key cities increased by 12% compared to the previous month, and by 26% year-on-year.

Analysts pointed out that under the promotion of policy optimization, both new and second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities saw significant growth, with Guangzhou and Shenzhen outperforming Beijing and Shanghai.

According to data from multiple institutions, during the National Day period, there was a over 200% year-on-year increase in new housing transactions in Beijing, and over 150% increase in second-hand houses; Shenzhen saw a 664.14% increase in new housing subscriptions compared to the same period last year; Shanghai saw a doubling in new housing transactions year-on-year; and both the visitation and subscription volume of new housing projects in Guangzhou increased significantly.

During the golden period, Poly Developments and Holdings Group achieved a nationwide transaction amount of approximately 14.8 billion yuan, a 47% increase from the previous year. Yuexiu Property accumulated a sales subscription amount of 9.19 billion yuan, reaching a historical high for the same period. Longfor's sales performance improved in multiple cities nationwide, with a daily subscription volume more than 20% higher than during the National Day period in 2023, and a month-on-month growth of 70%-80% during this year's May Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays.

"The 'Silver October' performance has exceeded expectations, with significant stabilization in core city markets, residents' confidence in homebuying beginning to recover. It is expected that the new policies will continue to show effects in the short term, and October's market sales data may show a significant increase." Xu Yuejin, Deputy General Manager of China Index Academy, said. Looking ahead, in terms of policies, there is still room for optimization in restrictive policies in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen in the future, and second-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities are also expected to increase housing subsidies to further promote market stabilization in terms of volume and price.

Beijing's real estate market during the Golden Week has achieved a recent high in transactions.

During the National Day holiday in 2024, the volume of real estate transactions in Beijing reached the highest point in recent years for the same period.

According to statistics from the Research Institute of Zhongyuan Real Estate, during the National Day holiday in 2024, the volume of real estate transactions in Beijing reached the highest point in recent years for the same period, with new residential properties increasing by over 200% year-on-year and second-hand houses increasing by over 150%.

Specifically, after the new policy "930" in 2024, the volume of real estate transactions in Beijing continued to rise during the National Day holiday. The cumulative number of new residential properties sold reached close to 2000, nearly three times the transactions in the 2023 National Day holiday of about 600 sets; the actual number of second-hand houses sold reached around 5500, with an increase of over 175% compared to the same period last year.

The significant increase in transaction volume in Beijing was due to a major relaxation of real estate policies. On the evening of September 30, Beijing significantly optimized its purchase restriction policies, reducing the social security years required for non-Beijing residents to 3 years within the Fifth Ring Road and 2 years outside the Fifth Ring Road. It also lowered the minimum down payment percentage for personal housing loans and abolished the distinction between normal housing and non-normal housing.

Subsequently, during the National Day holiday after the new policies, data such as online consultation volume for Beijing projects, site visits, transactions, and second-hand house viewings all showed significant increases compared to the same period in previous years and September. According to data from the China Real Estate Information Corporation, both new and second-hand housing transactions in Beijing reached the highest levels in recent National Day holidays, with project conversion rates in hotspot areas exceeding 10%.

In particular, Longfor Group's Longfor · The Glades in Beijing experienced another peak after the opening during the National Day holiday. On October 1 alone, 10 groups of customers made immediate transactions, with nearly 100 customer visits per day during October 1-6, representing a 50% increase compared to the previous period. With an average of more than 5 transactions per day, a total of 32 units were sold during the period, generating sales revenue of 0.19 billion, a month-on-month sales rate increase of over 120%.

According to sales staff at the project, the majority of transactions during the National Day holiday were made by young first-time homebuyers. Previously, due to restrictions on social security years and insufficient down payments, they were unable to make purchases. The adjustment in down payment requirements and social security years completely solved the qualification and affordability issues for these customers.

In addition, under China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Group, the China Merchants Xi project signed 65 sets of contracts during the National Day period, with sales reaching 1 billion yuan; the Yuanxi project in Shijingshan signed about 80 sets, with a contract amount of 0.86 billion.

"Although the trading volume has increased significantly in the short term, whether it is new homes or second-hand houses, the overall transactions still mainly focus on price-volume exchanges." Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, stated that especially for previously relatively unsold newly built residential properties, prices have recently undergone significant adjustments.

According to Zhang Dawei's introduction, it is expected that the signing transaction volume in Beijing in the second half of October will significantly increase. Even under the influence of the long holiday, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in October is still expected to remain at around 0.013 million units, a relatively high level.

A large number of out-of-town and overseas homebuyers have been added in Shenzhen.

During the National Day holiday, the real estate market in Shenzhen also saw a substantial increase in transaction volume.

According to the data released by the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau, during the National Day holiday, 1841 new commodity residential units were subscribed for sale in Shenzhen, totaling 0.1918 million square meters. The subscription volume increased by 664.14% compared to the same period last year; as for the second-hand housing market, the number of viewings and transactions conducted by top agencies in the city was approximately 0.024 million person-times and 1314 units respectively, with a daily average growth of 22% and 339% compared to the 2023 National Day holiday period.

According to data from the Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, during this year's National Day holiday (10.1-10.6), the daily average number of property searching visits in Shenzhen exceeded one million, with inquiries surpassing 5000. Second-hand property transactions at branch stores increased by 279% year-on-year, while new property transactions grew by 1053%.

"With the new real estate policies coinciding with the National Day holiday effect, in addition to the increased willingness of local residents in Shenzhen to enter the market, there is also an influx of a large number of out-of-town and overseas homebuyers." Xu Yuejin stated.

It is reported that Shenzhen announced new real estate policies on September 29, including relaxing restrictions on purchases, lifting resale restrictions, adjusting the VAT exemption period from 5 years to 2 years, and optimizing personal housing loans.

After the new policy, the number of property viewing visits at various new property centers in Shenzhen has surged, with many sales offices open 24 hours and some properties experiencing queues waiting to view model rooms, leading to frequent good news on transactions, with over 1,000 groups visiting multiple projects in Nanshan, Guangming, and Longhua districts.” Analysts from Zhongzheng Institution stated.

It is learned that after the new policy, the overall visit volume during the holidays at the Guangming Yuhu Jing project in Shenzhen increased by 300% compared to September, doubling the average daily visits on weekends before the new policy, with transaction volume increasing by about three times, and daily transaction amounts exceeding one billion for consecutive days.

"Many customers who did not make transactions due to insufficient market confidence during this National Day holiday have come back for follow-up visits. Stimulated by the new policy and the overall market heat, their confidence in buying a house has significantly increased, and the decision-making time for new visitors has also been greatly shortened; There is also a part of the population who are considering buying a third property after the new policy was implemented and buying properties for their children." Staff from the Guangming Yuhu Jing project told reporters.

Analysts point out that home buyers in Shenzhen are more optimistic about future market expectations and house prices after the new policy, and the National Day holiday has set a good start for Shenzhen's real estate market in the fourth quarter.

Several real estate projects in Guangzhou have completed their sales targets for the National Day holiday in advance.

After a 14-year restriction, Guangzhou's real estate market completely exited the stage on September 29th, becoming the first first-tier city in the country to 'lift restrictions.'

Under the unprecedented combination of multiple policy advantages and intensified promotional activities, the market heat during the 'Golden Week' in Guangzhou has increased. Several real estate projects have seen a significant rise in on-site popularity, as well as in visitation and subscription volumes, accelerating the pace of homebuyers entering the market.

It is reported that Poly, Vanke, Yuexiu, Longfor, and other real estate companies with multiple projects in Guangzhou received over 1,000 groups of visitors during the National Day holiday. Several projects completed their sales targets for the holiday in advance.

Specifically, during the Golden Week in October, Poly Developments' sales in the Guangdong region reached 5 billion yuan. Meanwhile, Vanke's transaction volume in the Guangfo area approached 3 billion, with its Wanke Huangpu Xincheng's single-day visits exceeding 2000 groups and transactions surpassing 210 units; Wanke Lixi Ideal Flower Land in Liwan also saw transactions exceed 200 units; Jinmao Vanke Metropolitan Four Seasons in Zengcheng also had over 200 units subscribed.

According to on-site data statistics, after the new policy, customer visits have significantly increased, with a daily average of nearly 200 groups, doubling the usual visit volume, with a total of over 1500 customer visits during the holiday period until the evening of October 7th.

"It is expected that under the influence of favorable policies and the gradual recovery of homebuyers' confidence, the demand in the Guangzhou market will gradually be unleashed," said the above-mentioned analyst from China Central Properties.

Significant increase in new housing subscriptions in Shanghai

During the National Day holiday, there was a noticeable increase in the heat of the Shanghai property market.

On September 29th, Shanghai announced new real estate regulations, adjusting aspects such as rigid demand, upgrading, and second-hand property transactions. This included modifying the range of restricted purchases outside the outer ring road, "3 changes 1" in social insurance, "5 changes 2" in value-added tax, and the removal of restrictions on non-ordinary residences.

According to KERR analyst, after the release of the new regulations in Shanghai, the market quickly picked up. Looking at the performance of typical projects, the number of visits and subscriptions for traditional rigid demand projects mostly exceeded that of the first week after the 927 new policies. The daily average of subscriptions after the new policies at projects like Kingold Greenland Hui, Kingold Jiaying (villas), Huafa Sea Pavilion, and China Merchants Zhonglv Lanyue all increased by more than 50% compared to the daily average after the 527 new policies.

"Due to the new policy's change of the personal income tax requirement from three years to one year outside the outer ring road, it has significantly reduced the home purchase threshold for rigid demand customers. Most projects saw an increase in visits and subscriptions during the National Day period, with Poly Xijiao Xuhu having a subscription rate of over 80%," said the above-mentioned analyst from China Central Properties.

In terms of second-hand housing, the policy of reducing the VAT exemption period from 5 years to 2 years in shanghai, as well as the cancellation of non-residential standard, have both reduced the purchasing cost of second-hand houses, leading to a significant increase in property viewings.

"Overall, the market subscription data during the National Day holiday is still significantly better than September and the May Day holiday. The overall market shows signs of stabilizing after the previous decline. Policy benefits directly beneficiaries in beijing, shanghai, guangzhou, and shenzhen. Both new and second-hand property transactions have seen a substantial increase. Signs of increased visits and subscriptions in previously deeply adjusted cities like tianjin, wuhan, and zhengzhou have also emerged. While most other cities have relatively flat market conditions, basic transactions have entered the bottoming stage, with a high probability of stabilizing and rebounding in October," as mentioned by the analyst at Ke Rui.

Zhang Dawei believes that from a national market perspective, compared to the most lenient moments in the history of various cities, there is still much room for relaxation in current real estate policies.

On October 8, the Director of the National Development and Reform Commission stated at a press conference that, while effectively implementing existing policies, efforts will be stepped up to introduce a package of incremental policies focusing on enhancing macro policy countercyclical adjustments, expanding effective domestic demand, increasing support for enterprises, stabilizing and revitalizing the real estate market, and boosting capital markets. These initiatives aim to drive sustained economic recovery and improvement.

Li Yu Jia, Chief Researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Urban and Rural Planning Institute, stated that the NDRC's stance on real estate continues the tone from the Central Political Bureau meeting. Additionally, they are actively planning and promoting other policies. It is expected that new policies will be introduced in the future, including reducing or exempting taxes on second-hand property transactions, VAT, and personal income tax. They also plan to further lower the LPR and drive down mortgage interest rates.