Zhitong Finance and Economics APP learned that GF Securities released a research report stating that during the National Day holiday, the pig price continued to fluctuate. Considering the significant decrease in the number of piglets born in the first half of the year and the fourth quarter as the traditional peak season for consumption, it is expected that the pig price will continue to show strong performance in the fourth quarter. Due to the increase in fish supply during the peak season and the impact of typhoon weather, aquatic product prices overall slightly decreased month-on-month in September. The fish price remained stable during the National Day holiday, considering the significant decrease in breeding costs. Core varieties such as live fish, California yellow croaker, and grass carp show significant profit recovery, stimulating a significant rebound in September autumn stocking, bullish on the trend of special aquatic feed demand in the fourth quarter.

Livestock and poultry farming: According to Zhuwang.com, the average national live pig price in September 2024 was 18.96 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 7.07% and a year-on-year increase of 18.43%. The pig price continued to fluctuate during the National Day holiday. Considering the significant decrease in the number of piglets born in the first half of the year and the fourth quarter as the traditional peak season for consumption, it is expected that the pig price will continue to show strong performance in the fourth quarter. According to Mysteel data, the prices of piglets in some northern regions recently dropped below 300 yuan/head, indicating a relatively pessimistic industry outlook for pig prices after the next Chinese New Year. The enthusiasm for herd rebuilding has significantly decreased, and it is expected that the recovery of the industry's sow inventory may remain relatively slow, extending the duration of the industry's prosperity. The current valuation of the sector is at historically low levels, with key recommendations for large-scale breeding enterprises including Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, focusing on New Hope Liuhe, and key attention to medium and small-scale breeding enterprises such as Tangrenshen, Tecon Biology, and Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products. Regarding broiler chickens, the rebound in the price of commercial broiler chick prices continued. According to Wind, the price of commercial broiler chicks in Yantai rose by 2.6% month-on-month in September. If the dining industry shows signs of recovery in the future, the broiler chicken industry chain has considerable elasticity. Fujian Sunner Development, Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding, and others are expected to benefit. As for yellow-feathered chickens, the current inventory of breeding chickens continues to be relatively low, with significant advantages for high-quality enterprises, recommending continuation of Lihua Animal Husbandry.

Feed and Animal Health: According to Wind, corn and fishmeal prices in September fell by 3% and 7% respectively month-on-month, while soybean meal prices remained relatively stable. With the decline in raw material prices and intensified industry competition, feed prices continued to decrease month-on-month in September. In terms of sales volume, stimulated by profitable farming, pig feed sales in September continued to increase, while poultry feed demand remained stable. Due to the increase in fish supply during the peak season and the impact of typhoon weather, aquatic product prices overall slightly decreased month-on-month in September. The fish price remained stable during the National Day holiday, considering the significant decrease in breeding costs. Core varieties such as live fish, California yellow croaker, and grass carp show significant profit recovery, stimulating a significant rebound in September autumn stocking, bullish on the trend of special aquatic feed demand in the fourth quarter. The feed industry leader is accelerating overseas capacity layout, with a large capacity in the overseas feed market, lower competitive intensity compared to the domestic market. In the first half of the year, feed companies achieved improvements in sales volume and profitability in their overseas business, optimistic about Guangdong Haid Group, leading to a continuous increase in domestic market share under the comprehensive competitive advantages, providing new growth space for overseas business contributions. In terms of animal health, the expected recovery of breeding profits is expected to drive bottoming out and rebound of the animal health industry. The current valuation of the sector is low, so it is recommended to focus on companies such as Jinyu Bio-technology, China Animal Husbandry Industry, and Pulike Biological Engineering, Inc.

Planting Industry: China's autumn grain harvesting is in full swing. According to the Beijing Seed Industry Association, the area of domestically planted transgenic corn is expected to exceed 10 million mu this year, steadily advancing the industrialization of biological breeding. It is recommended to focus on Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture, Shandong Denghai Seeds, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group, and others. The average price of domestic corn in September was about 2328 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.06%. With the continuous listing of new corn, the pressure on supply is increasing and corn prices continue to decline. The speed of new grains entering the market in October will further accelerate, potentially leading to a continued downward trend in prices in the short term.

Pet Food: According to the General Administration of Customs, the retail package pet food (cats & dogs) export value in China in August was 0.987 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 2.73% and a year-on-year increase of 33.44%. The cumulative export value from January to August was 6.926 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.09%. Focus on leading companies with overseas export growth and domestic market expansion, and recommend paying attention to Guaibao Pet, Yantai China Pet Foods, and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology.

Risk warning: Agricultural product price fluctuation risk, disease risk, policy risk, etc.