Jingu Finance News | Guotou Securities research indicates that li auto inc (02015) delivered 0.054 million vehicles in September, an increase of +48.9% year-on-year and +11.6% month-on-month; In the third quarter of 24Q3, the company delivered 0.153 million new vehicles, an increase of +45.4% year-on-year and +40.8% month-on-month, approaching the upper limit of the previous Q3 sales guidance (0.145-0.155 million vehicles).

The bank believes that the month-on-month sales growth of the company in September is mainly benefited from the successive introduction of local scrappage subsidies and increasing demand, especially in some provinces where the subsidy amount is based on the vehicle price in a tiered manner, which is bullish for high-end car sales. Looking at retail data, the extended-range series remains popular, with sales averaging about 5,500 units in the first three weeks of September and a total of about 6,000 units in weeks L7/8/9 combined; Pure electric product sales grew slightly, with the MEGA average weekly sales of about 186 units in the first three weeks of September, an increase of 15 units compared to the previous month. The bank believes this is mainly due to the gradual accumulation of product reputation and the increasingly perfect layout of super charging stations.

The bank stated that it is expected that the company's net income attributable to its parent in 2024-2026 will be 8.1, 15.4, and 26.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding current market cap PEs of 20, 11, and 6 times. Referring to comparable company valuations, a 18xPE is given for 2025, corresponding to a 6-month target price of 130.86 yuan, equivalent to 144.79 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining a buy rating on the company.