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A股券商大涨,港股券商大跌,两地此消彼涨,溢价逻辑失效了?

A-share brokerage firms surged, while Hong Kong brokerage firms plummeted, the two markets moved in opposite directions, has the premium logic failed?

cls.cn ·  Oct 8 14:12

① 17 Hong Kong brokerage firms collectively fell, with an average decline of 20.81%; ② 48 A-share brokerage stocks hit the daily limit up again, with a morning trading volume of 108.951 billion yuan; ③ The previously narrowed AH stock premium rate has expanded again, with 8 stocks approaching or exceeding a premium rate of 100%.

The brokerage sector in the Hong Kong stock market intensifies the game, after experiencing a significant and rapid increase during the National Day holiday, the stock price today has seen a significant retreat.

On the morning of October 8th, Hong Kong brokerage stocks experienced a massive adjustment. By the morning close, 17 Hong Kong brokerage firms collectively fell, with an average decline of 20.81%; the turnover ratio was high, with an average turnover ratio of 7.45%; Guolian Securities had the highest turnover ratio in Hong Kong stocks at 15.48%; trading volume significantly increased, with the half-day trading volume exceeding yesterday's full-day volume by 56.42%; the total trading volume of Citic Securities and China International Capital Corporation reached 9.669 billion Hong Kong dollars.

In stark contrast to Hong Kong stocks, A-shares surged in the morning with 48 brokerage stocks hitting the daily limit up, with a morning trading volume of 108.951 billion yuan. Influenced by the adjustment in Hong Kong stocks and the sharp rise in A-shares, the AH stock premium rate expanded again, with 8 brokerage stocks having a premium rate exceeding 100%.

Massive adjustment in the Hong Kong brokerage sector

In the morning session of Hong Kong stocks, most Hong Kong brokerage stocks experienced significant declines, with as many as 13 stocks plunging by over 30% during the session.

Swhyhk once fell by nearly 50% in Hong Kong, with a maximum intraday decline of 46.13%. Others with significant intraday declines include China Merchants Securities (-42.86%), China Securities Co., Ltd. (-38.81%), Orient Securities (-38.37%), Central China Securities (-37.31%), China International Capital Corporation (-35.79%), and Guolian Securities (-35.01%).

After 1 hour and 43 minutes of trading on the Hong Kong stock market, Hong Kong brokerage stocks rapidly rebounded, but despite the 'V-shaped rebound,' they are still far from turning positive.

As of noon at 12:00, there are 12 stocks in the Hong Kong stock market that dropped by more than 20%, namely:$HENGTOU SEC (01476.HK)$(-26.3%), CC Securities (-25.37%), China International Capital Corporation (-24.74%), CSC Securities (-24.01%), China Merchants Securities (-23.32%), CR Holdings (-23.13%), Orient Securities (-22.6%), SWHY (-22.58%), China Galaxy(-22.55%), Guolian Securities (-22.04%), Guotai Junan International (-21.57%), HTSC (-20.58%).

Other brokerage firms with slightly smaller declines are $GF SEC (01776.HK)$ (-18.06%)、 $SWHYHK (00218.HK)$ (-16.5%)、 $EB SECURITIES (06178.HK)$ (-15.93%)、 $CITIC SEC (06030.HK)$ (-15.58%)、 $CISI FIN (06058.HK)$ (-9.76%)。

The average turnover ratio is 7.45%, with 6 Hong Kong brokerage firms having a turnover ratio of over 10%, namely guolian (15.48%), china merchants (14.4%), orient (14.06%), china international capital corporation (13.05%), csc (10.73%), swhy (10.21%).

17 Hong Kong brokerage stocks traded at 23.851 billion Hong Kong dollars in half a day, exceeding the full-day turnover on October 7th, with a turnover of 15.248 billion yuan that day. Today, $CITIC SEC (06030.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CICC (03908.HK)$ The turnover is relatively high, reaching 5.061 billion Hong Kong dollars and 4.608 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively, with a total turnover ratio of the sector reaching 40.54%.

AH stocks of brokerage firms collectively rose to the limit again.

Compared to the Hong Kong brokerage stocks, AH stocks brokerage firms are experiencing a polarizing trend, making up for the surge in Hong Kong stocks during the holiday period.

On October 8th, by the time of the midday close, except for Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities being suspended from trading, all 48 brokerage stocks hit their limit up. $East Money Information (300059.SZ)$ Increased by 20%.

48 brokerage stocks had a turnover of 108.951 billion yuan in half a day, with east money information accounting for 31.081 billion yuan, 28.53%. Others with higher turnover include htsc (4.926 billion yuan), gf sec (3.731 billion yuan), citic sec (3.642 billion yuan), founder sec (3.047 billion yuan), the pacific (3.035 billion yuan), china international capital corporation (2.893 billion yuan), soochow (2.753 billion yuan), everbright (2.43 billion yuan), china galaxy (2.32 billion yuan), sinolink (2.315 billion yuan).

The turnover ratio's arithmetic mean is 4.3%. $Capital (601136.SH)$ The highest turnover ratio is 16.52%; other higher turnover ratios are$Cinda (601059.SH)$(10.81%), Oriental Wealth (9.62%), $The Pacific (601099.SH)$ (8.81%)、$Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc. (000712.SZ)$(7.49%)。

Currently, the top ten total market capitalization rankings are: Citic Securities (403.119 billion yuan), East Money Information (320.447 billion yuan), China Securities Co.,Ltd. (208.345 billion yuan), China International Capital Corporation (186.38 billion yuan), China Merchants Securities (169.06 billion yuan), China Galaxy (168.28 billion yuan), HTSC (158.881 billion yuan), Swhy (143.228 billion yuan), Guotai Junan (130.885 billion yuan), GF Sec (127.272 billion yuan), Haitong Sec (114.573 billion yuan), and Guosen (113.715 billion yuan).

However, it is worth noting that some brokerage stocks have shown signs of multiple consecutive limit-up openings, including those of East Money Information, Central China Securities, Southwest Securities, Huaan Securities, and others.

Due to the early adjustment of Hong Kong stocks and the sharp rise in A-shares, the premium rates of AH stocks, which had already narrowed during the holidays, have once again expanded. Eight stocks have a premium rate close to or exceeding 100%, namely China International Capital Corporation (153.89%), China Securities Co.,Ltd. (149.27%), Guolian Securities (145.94%), China Galaxy (118.58%), Everbright (112.18%), Orient (94.25%), Central China Securities (92.50%), and Swhy (92.19%). Other premium rate situations include GF Sec (49.46%), HTSC (28.91%), Citic Securities (26.58%), and China Merchants Securities (18.42%).

Seller: Bullish on brokerage opportunities under the high turnover in the market.

Huaan Securities research reports point out that the brokerage sector's positions are relatively low, with strong policy support and active turnover bringing positive feedback loops. It is suggested to seize the investment opportunities under the market's confidence return, focus on high-quality top undervalued brokerages with M&A expectations, brokerage and investment business with high performance elasticity, and brokerages benefitting from the market's recovery in sentiment.

The current brokerage sector benefits from a double hit of 'strong policy support + positive feedback loop,' with the central bank initiating structural monetary policy tools, the Political Bureau meeting first mentioning 'efforts to boost the capital market,' and long-term funds entering the market along with various comprehensive reforms. The Hong Kong stock market was active around National Day, with daily turnover exceeding 500 billion Hong Kong dollars, setting a new record. There is a significant increase in new account openings, continuous net inflows to ETFs, and accelerated fund entry.

Huaan Securities believes that subsequent policies may still have certain continuity, and the market is expected to maintain high activity levels. In an environment of rising investor confidence and high market sentiment, brokerage business directly benefits, margin trading grows along with increased risk appetite, investment income shows strong elasticity, and various business lines such as asset management open up growth opportunities, driving the market from expectation to fundamental improvements in trading sectors.

East Money Information's research report states that, taking history as a mirror, the brokerage sector's market is mainly benefiting from economic and policy drivers. It is bullish on the outlook, with policies providing support to boost confidence. The policy combination is expected to drive the valuation repair of brokerage sector. The recent policy combination aims to enhance the investment stability of financial institutions by providing liquidity and improving the capital market environment, enhancing the ability of securities companies in professional services and risk control, promoting the prosperity of the mergers and acquisitions market, thereby promoting market stability, enhancing investor confidence, and bullish on the valuation repair of the brokerage sector.

Editor/Rocky

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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