Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, after rallying with Tesla billionaire CEO Elon Musk over the weekend, saw his November election victory odds soar to 53.3% according to data from the large crypto betting platform Polymarket, surpassing Vice President Harris after forming a golden cross. Musk stated that Polymarket's betting data is more accurate than polls because actual money is involved.

Trump leads Harris by 53.3% to 46.1%, despite the narrow lead. This is the first time Trump has led since current US President Biden withdrew from the race and Harris was nominated by the Democratic Party. As of Monday, October 7th, bets on the election outcome on Polymarket alone have exceeded $1.4 billion. #USelection#

(Source: Polymarket)

Aggregate odds from various platforms also show Trump leading Harris, including a lead in the projected 281-257 electoral college. These betting trends have sparked debates about their predictive ability, especially after Musk's support for Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania. He emphasized the recent lead and stated that the prediction market is a more 'accurate' indicator of current voter sentiment.

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Musk tweeted: 'Trump is now leading Kamala by 3% in the betting market, more accurate than opinion polls, because real money is involved.'

(Source: Twitter)

The recent ruling by the American court has been favorable for predicting the market, ruling that betting on major political events such as presidential elections is legal, providing a significant boost to platforms offering such markets.

However, as the election day approaches, political analysts warn against relying too heavily on betting markets, as while these markets reflect current sentiments, they are not immune to last-minute changes.

Trump's policies, including significant tax cuts, are expected to increase the national deficit, further drive inflation, and raise the bond yields. Analysts believe this could create a perfect storm for bitcoin's growth, positioning it as a hedge against inflation and market uncertainty.

According to the US media outlet Politico, if Trump wins the election, there will be significant changes in the American financial regulatory landscape.

Robinhood's Chief Legal Officer and prominent leader in bitcoin and cryptos, Dan Gallagher, is considering becoming the Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Other candidates include former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo, Robert Stebbins, and current SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, all showing a friendly stance towards cryptocurrencies. This shift could potentially bring a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptos under the leadership of the Trump administration, reshaping American financial regulation.

(Source: Twitter)

Bitcoin Price Outlook

A recent report from Bernstein shows that if Trump wins, the price of Bitcoin could soar to between $80,000 and $90,000, thanks to his support for digital assets and his pledge to solidify America's leading position in the cryptocurrency industry.

On the other hand, if Harris wins, the trading price of Bitcoin may reach between $30,000 and $40,000, reflecting her more cautious stance towards the industry.

At the same time, Standard Chartered Bank predicts that regardless of the winner, Bitcoin will rise. However, the bank believes that if Trump takes office, the increase in Bitcoin will be greater, reaching up to $125,000 at most, while when Harris takes office, Bitcoin will only increase by $75,000. The cryptocurrency industry also shares a similar view, with many expecting a more favorable regulatory environment after Trump takes office.