JPMorgan: The future crypto market will be influenced by several key factors in the coming months.
JPMorgan analysts point out that in the next few months, the cryptocurrency market will be influenced by several key factors, including the seasonal 'Uptober' trend, Fed rate cuts, and the Ethereum 'Pectra' upgrade. They mention that historical data shows that over 70% of 'Uptober' months have positive Bitcoin returns, which could positively impact market behavior. Although the Fed rate cuts have not significantly driven the cryptocurrency market, analysts believe that the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic factors and requires clearer catalysts for sustained growth. In addition, the approval of Bitcoin ETF options could deepen market liquidity and attract more investors.
Report: Bitcoin remains the best performing asset so far this year.
New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) stated that despite experiencing a seasonally weak third quarter, Bitcoin remains the best performing asset so far this year. Greg Cipolaro, the research head of NYDIG, mentioned in a report on October 4 that sales in the third quarter only increased by 2.5%, rebounding from a decline in the second quarter but hindered by large-scale sales during the same period. Cipolaro stated: Bitcoin continues to be the top performing asset category in 2024, but its lead has narrowed. Bitcoin has risen by 49.2% so far this year. For most of the past six months, trading has largely remained within a range due to significant resistance such as the Mt. Gox and Genesis creditors' distributions (totaling nearly $13.5 billion) as well as massive sales of BTC by the US and German governments. Cipolaro added that precious metals and certain stock industries have outperformed BTC, and most asset categories have had a splendid year. Bitcoin also defied the odds by rising 10% in September, which is typically a bearish month for the asset.
Data: Bitcoin spot ETF saw net outflows exceeding $0.3 billion last week, with ARK's ARKB seeing the largest outflows.
According to SoSoValue data, the Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $0.301 billion last week, with ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ARKB experiencing the largest single-week net outflow reaching $0.206 billion, totaling $2.52 billion in historical net inflows; Grayscale ETF GBTC saw a weekly outflow of $47.12 million and a historical net outflow of $20.14 billion. BlackRock's ETF IBIT had the highest net inflow last week at $0.135 billion, with a historical total net inflow of $21.56 billion; followed by Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF BTCO, which had a weekly net inflow of $2.44 million and a historical total net inflow of $0.373 billion. As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF stands at $57.734 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market value as a percentage of total Bitcoin market value) of 4.68%, and cumulative net inflows reaching $18.499 billion.
Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission CEO: Completing the virtual asset framework should be at least by next year.
According to reports by Hong Kong 01, Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission CEO, Leung Fung-yee, stated during an interview that advancing the regulatory framework for virtual asset trading platforms, supporting the tokenization of traditional products, utilizing blockchain and Web3 basic technologies, should be completed by at least next year. Regarding Virtual Asset Trading Platforms (VATP), Leung Fung-yee mentioned that the Commission has issued the 3rd license to the Hong Kong Virtual Asset Exchange (HKVAX), with the other two licensed platforms being OSL Exchange and HashKey Exchange. Additionally, 11 platforms are being treated as applicants for licenses, and Leung Fung-yee indicated that the first-stage on-site reviews are already underway, with requests for these applicants to make necessary adjustments. The aim is to have progress by the end of the year, including phased licensing. In terms of Over-the-Counter (OTC) services, Leung Fung-yee mentioned that the Commission has formulated a new licensing system for cryptocurrency OTC trading services and custody services, seeking industry feedback.
5. 6 Hong Kong virtual asset ETFs had a turnover of 19.527 million Hong Kong dollars yesterday.
According to the Hong Kong stock market data, as of the close of trading, the turnover of 6 Hong Kong virtual asset ETFs was 19.527 million Hong Kong dollars. Among them: Huaxia Bitcoin ETF (3042.HK) had a turnover of 10.81 million Hong Kong dollars, Huaxia Ethereum ETF (3046.HK) had a turnover of 1.64 million Hong Kong dollars, Jiashi Bitcoin ETF (3439.HK) had a turnover of 5.07 million Hong Kong dollars, Jiashi Ethereum ETF (3179.HK) had a turnover of 0.4684 million Hong Kong dollars, Bosh HashKey Bitcoin ETF (3008.HK) had a turnover of 1.38 million Hong Kong dollars, and Bosh HashKey Ethereum ETF (3009.HK) had a turnover of 0.1586 million Hong Kong dollars.
6. Bitfinex Alpha: Bitcoin sees a healthy pullback, but the outlook is unclear.
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report states that Bitcoin fell by 10% this week, mainly due to massive selling in the spot market and broader market deleveraging. After reaching a local high of $66,587 on September 27, the price of Bitcoin fell sharply, especially after breaking below the key level of $65,200, triggering consecutive long liquidations, leading Bitcoin to drop to $60,000. In fact, last week's spot market selling intensified due to escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, exacerbating de-risking and resulting in a high long liquidation amount of $0.45 billion on October 1. With Bitcoin falling for the first time in four consecutive days since early August, the market saw a healthy adjustment, with open interest dropping from over $35 billion to $31.8 billion. The decrease in open interest indicates relative market stability, with the risk of sudden price fluctuations now lower. On October 4, with positive labor market data, Bitcoin rebounded to $62,500, reaching as high as $64,027 in trading on October 7, when spot buying interest slightly recovered. However, it is still too early to draw conclusions about the short-term market trend. Several altcoins also showed significant volatility, with large-cap assets like XRP and APT fluctuating between 15-20%. As the market remains passive, clues to the future of BTC and the entire market may lie in any positioning during the early trading hours this week (especially in the USA).
7. German cryptocurrency market maker Tradias completes Series A financing and obtains a securities trading bank license issued by regulatory authorities.
German cryptocurrency market maker Tradias completes Series A financing and obtains a securities trading bank license issued by regulatory authorities. The company has not disclosed the specific amount of financing and information about investors, only mentioning that several small and medium-sized family wealth management rooms participated in this round of financing. Tradias has been using the license of its parent company Bankhaus Scheich.
8. Rockdale Mayor: Bitcoin is like a digital oil well, providing momentum for the Texas economy.
According to CryptoSlate, Ward Roddam, Mayor of Rockdale, Texas, emphasized the key role of Bitcoin in revitalizing the city's economy. In a column on October 7, Roddam explained that the world is approaching a new economic era he calls the 'digital energy boom,' mainly driven by Bitcoin. He pointed out that rural communities including Rockdale have already benefited from it.
Matrixport report: It is expected that by 2025, global crypto adoption rate will exceed 8%.
According to a report by Matrixport, the adoption rate of cryptocurrencies worldwide is approaching a significant milestone, with 7.51% of the global population currently using cryptocurrencies. The report predicts that by 2025, this number will exceed 8%, marking a potential shift of cryptocurrencies from a niche market to the mainstream financial system. The report emphasizes that the increasing participation of institutions and economic uncertainty are key factors driving steady growth in adoption.
Opinion: The outflow of funds generated by cryptocurrency purchases may affect Brazil's domestic exchange rates.
Although Brazil's outflow of cryptocurrencies is still relatively low and can be offset by other inflows, economists and analysts predict that if these outflows continue to grow, they will impact Brazil's domestic exchange rates. Some believe that this growth is related to Brazilians using cryptocurrencies as a payment method. Stablecoins may play a significant role in this, as they have been welcomed by banks in Brazil, which use stablecoins for exchange transactions at customer requests. Nevertheless, considering the reported high figures, it is possible that foreign companies are also attempting to use cryptocurrencies.
Report: Binance's market share significantly decreased amidst regulatory pressure and the rise of competitors.
According to a CCData report, Binance's market share has dropped to 36.6%, the lowest point in four years. Since March of this year, Binance's market share has been continuously decreasing as global regulatory authorities intensify their scrutiny. Earlier this year, Binance's market share was 42.7%, significantly reducing within a few months. Binance's spot market share has also dropped to only 27% of the trading volume, the lowest level since January 2021. Over the past year, Binance has faced numerous significant regulatory challenges, eventually reaching a settlement with the US Department of Justice on sanction violations, and paying a $4 billion fine. Following these issues, CZ, the co-founder and former CEO of Binance, facing legal problems including four months of imprisonment, announced his resignation.
Bahrain National Bank launches the first Bitcoin-backed structured investment product.
According to Cointelegraph, Bahrain National Bank has announced the launch of the first Bitcoin-backed structured investment product designed specifically for institutional investors of the Gulf Cooperation Council, comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The product, developed in collaboration with the digital asset company ARP Digital, will provide BTC yield exposure restricted within predetermined thresholds and offer 100% loss protection during downturns.