2024年9月18日美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调为4.75%至5%，降息50bp，开启新一轮降息周期。2024年9月24日国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，推出了包括降低存款准备金率、降低存量房贷利率、创设新货币工具等一揽子政策，鼓励金融支持经济高质量发展。在此背景下美国资产吸引力降低而中国资产吸引力提升，资金回流叠加情绪改善有望催生新的投资机会。东吴证券从“超跌回调”、“资金回流”、“外资持股偏好”、“机构持股偏好”四大角度梳理机械行业投资思路。By comparing the proportion of foreign holdings of targets in the machinery sector in recent years, Soochow Securities found that foreign investors favor high-quality Hakuba stocks, which typically have features such as a high market share in segmented racecourses, long-term excellence, strong cash flow, and high ROE.
According to the report released by Soochow Securities on the Futubull Finance APP, against the background of the Fed raising interest rates, the attractiveness of Chinese assets is increasing. Capital inflows combined with improved sentiment are expected to create new investment opportunities. By comparing the proportion of foreign holdings of targets in the machinery sector in recent years, Soochow Securities found that foreign investors favor high-quality Hakuba stocks, which typically have features such as a high market share in segmented racecourses, long-term excellence, strong cash flow, and high ROE. With loose liquidity and frequent positive policy releases, domestic institutional investors (public funds + insurance asset management) are expected to gradually shift their investment style towards growth. The machinery sector has strong growth potential, and related targets with high growth performance are expected to be revalued by institutional investors.
With the background of the Fed raising interest rates, the attractiveness of Chinese assets is increasing, reconsidering the investment strategy for the machinery industry.
On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve announced a 50bp rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.75% to 5%, starting a new round of rate cuts. On September 24, 2024, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, introducing a package of policies including reducing reserve requirements, lowering existing mortgage rates, creating new monetary tools, etc., to encourage financial support for high-quality economic development. Against this background, while the attractiveness of U.S. assets decreases, the attractiveness of Chinese assets increases, with capital inflows and improved sentiment expected to create new investment opportunities. Soochow Securities reviews the investment strategy for the machinery industry from four perspectives: "oversold rebound", "capital inflow", "foreign holding preferences", and "institutional holding preferences".
Against a backdrop of loose liquidity, oversold targets with high-quality fundamentals are expected to undergo valuation repair.
Against the backdrop of a 50bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a 50bp reduction in Chinese reserve requirements, loose liquidity is expected to drive up the valuation center of the stock market. In this context, high-quality oversold targets with good fundamentals will experience high elasticity in valuation repair, potentially outperforming the overall market. Soochow Securities has reviewed targets in the machinery sector with good fundamentals but significant declines since the beginning of the year, and recommends paying attention to: (1) general sector targets highly related to domestic demand: Jiangsu Guomao Reducer, Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group, Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery, Centre Testing International Group, Chongqing Chuanyi Automation, Hangcha Group; (2) specialized equipment sector targets: Qingdao Gaoce Technology, Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies, Bozhong Precise Machinery, Suzhou Secote Precision Electronic.
As the attractiveness of Chinese assets increases and capital flows back, valuations are expected to be reassessed.
One of the reasons for the undervaluation of Chinese assets is the outflow of foreign capital in the past year. Against the backdrop of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the attractiveness of Chinese assets has increased. The return of foreign capital and their re-holding of Chinese assets are expected to drive the repricing of related symbols. Soochow has sorted out symbols with a significant decrease in the proportion of foreign institutional holdings in the past year. After the return of foreign capital, these symbols are expected to become preferred targets. It is recommended to pay attention to: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies, Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical, Zhejiang Dingli Machinery, Jingjin Equipment Inc., Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group, Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co., Ltd., Times Electric, First Tractor, Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic.
Against the background of capital inflow, the favored high-quality hakuba stocks by foreign investors are expected to rejuvenate.
By comparing the proportion of foreign institutional holdings of historical machinery sector symbols, Soochow found that foreign investors favor high-quality hakuba stocks, which usually have characteristics such as high market share in segmented sectors, long-term outstanding performance, strong cash flow, and high ROE. Against the backdrop of long-term foreign capital inflows into the Chinese market, Soochow has based on their stock preference outlined symbols of companies with a significant withdrawal in foreign institutional holdings proportion in the past five years and a good long-term fundamental. It is recommended to pay attention to: Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group, Zhejiang Dingli Machinery, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies, Centre Testing International Group, Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical, First Tractor, Qingdao Gaoce Technology, Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic, Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group, XCMG Construction Machinery.
Under loose liquidity, the market style preference leans towards growth, and growth stocks in the machinery sector are expected to benefit fully.
With loose liquidity combined with frequent bullish policies, domestic institutional investors (public funds + insurance asset management) investment styles will gradually shift towards growth, and growth stocks in the machinery sector show strong growth potential. Related symbols with high growth performance are expected to be revalued by institutional investors. Soochow has sorted out companies with a significant decrease in institutional holdings in the past five years and strong growth prospects. It is recommended to pay attention to: Qingdao Gaoce Technology (301029.SZ), Suzhou Maxwell Technologies (300765.SZ), Ecovacs Robotics (603486.SH), Jack Technology (603337.SH), Wuxi Autowell Technology Co., Ltd. (688516.SH), Centre Testing International Group (300012.SZ), Himile Mechanical Science and Technology (002595.SZ), Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical (300316.SZ), Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group (002353.SZ).
Risk Warning: Lower-than-expected equipment orders, slower-than-expected revenue recognition, macroeconomic volatility risks.
