According to the Intelligent Finance and Economics APP, China International Capital Corporation released a research report stating that the consumption data for the 'Golden Week' in 2024 is successively released. Overall, with the strong support of national policies to promote consumption and stabilize the economy, the various consumption data for Golden Week have shown significant year-on-year growth and a positive month-on-month trend, indicating improved consumer willingness and restored consumer confidence. Long-term travel, inbound and outbound tourism, and county-level tourism have performed well, while cultural activities such as attending movies and exhibitions are popular, and categories like home appliances and gold jewelry have seen impressive growth. There is a positive outlook for the continuous support and catalytic effects of subsequent consumption promotion policies on the consumer market.

China International Capital Corporation's main views are as follows:

Retail, light industry, and daily chemicals: The data during the 'Golden Week' is highly prosperous, and policy-led consumer confidence is being restored.

1. Both year-on-year and month-on-month consumer sentiment have improved. During the 'Golden Week', national consumption has generally improved across the country. According to data from various provinces and cities, key commercial districts in first-tier cities have seen a significant increase in foot traffic, with client flow increases of 13%-41% in the Tianhe Road commercial district in Guangzhou and a total increase of 20.9% in the 60 key commercial districts in Beijing over the first 4 days. Self-driving tours, cultural and tourism trips have boosted performance in central and western regions and lower-tier cities. Big data from Mafengwo shows Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi'an, Xinjiang, among others, as popular domestic destinations. Tickets for places like Sanxingdui and Jiuzhaigou were sold out early, and rental car data shows increased popularity in county-level destinations. In addition, inbound and outbound tourism and long-term travel have seen increased popularity, with Ctrip platform showing daily average order volumes for inbound and outbound tours surpassing the same period in 2019, reaching a record high.

2. Cultural activities like watching movies and visiting exhibitions are popular, and trendy experiences and gaming become new highlights. Cultural tourism was vibrant during the National Day, with Beijing organizing a total of 843 cultural activities and 933 events, an 11% year-on-year increase. Popular attractions like the Forbidden City and National Museum had 'tickets hard to come by,' while events like lantern festivals, concerts, and intangible cultural heritage experiences were popular festive forms. Trendy experiences and games added color to the extended holiday, with 'Black Myth: Wukong' driving a 30%+ increase in Ctrip orders for destinations like Datong, Shuozhou, and Linfen in Shanxi. The search heat for keywords like '二次元' and '谷子,' etc., on Ctrip platform increased by 120% monthly. Furthermore, offline movie-watching remains popular, with box office revenue on the first day of National Day reaching 0.495 billion RMB, exceeding the 0.43 billion RMB level of the first day of 23 years, ranking 4th in the history of National Day box office.

3. Categories like home appliances and gold jewelry are performing well, with significant growth driven by the policy of trading in old items for new ones. Home appliances have shown impressive performance due to policies encouraging trade-ins for new products. Additionally, the demand for weddings and other events has driven strong sales in gold jewelry. According to CCTV reports, merchants in Shuibei, Shenzhen saw a 40% - 30% increase in transaction volume and client flow during the holidays. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, around 1.0455 million consumers purchased approximately 1.5461 million units of major home appliances under the trade-in policy in the first 3 days of the National Day holiday, generating sales of 7.357 billion RMB; during the Golden Week, Suning's nationwide stores saw a 200% increase in holiday foot traffic and a 132% increase in trade-in orders.

Tourism hotels and dining: The trend of quantity and price during the National Day continues, highlighting the off-peak travel/multi-trend.

During the National Day holiday, the diversification of travelers and destinations is increasing, travel is more relaxing, outbound travel resilience is significantly restored, hotels continue the trend of 'stable quantity and falling prices', and Hainan's passenger flow remains stable year-on-year.

Tourism: The volume and price trends of National Day travel continue from previous holidays; travelers and destinations are increasingly diversified. In terms of the number of people, according to data from the Ministry of Transportation, from October 1st to 5th, 2024, the cross-regional population flow of the whole society increased by 2.8% compared to 2023 and by 24.0% compared to 2019; including railways passenger volume increased by 6.6% from 2023 and by 28.0% from 2019, road passenger flow increased by 2.4% from 2023 and by 24.3% from 2019 (where non-commercial small car passenger travel increased by 2.4% from 2023 and by 56.8% from 2019, commercial passenger volume increased by 2.5% from 2023 and decreased by 47.0% from 2019), waterway passenger volume increased by 17.7% from 2023 and decreased by 27.2% from 2019, civil aviation passenger volume increased by 13.4% from 2023 and by 22.1% from 2019. On the price side, Qunar data shows that the average ticket payment price and average price of high-star hotels during the National Day period decreased by approximately 10% and 15% respectively year-on-year; at the same time, due to the more obvious trend of off-peak travel during this year's National Day and the price strategy of the supply side tending to exchange price for volume, the airline and hotel prices curve is more smooth, the peak is lower than in previous years, and there are fewer significant price drops compared to previous National Day holidays.

The diversification of travelers and destinations is increasing; more relaxing travel. In terms of travelers, Qunar data shows that residents from third-tier cities and below are showing a high enthusiasm for travel. During this year's National Day period on the Qunar platform, the number of first-time ticket purchases by residents from third-tier cities and below increased by more than 50% compared to the same period in 2023, while the number of first-time purchases of international flight tickets increased by over 70%, and the outbound travel bookings more than tripled compared to the previous year (compared to a nearly 70% increase in second-tier cities, a about 40% increase in new first-tier cities, and a basic flat in first-tier cities). Ctrip data shows that during the National Day period, the post-00s generation (excluding post-05s) accounted for nearly 20% of orders on the platform, surpassing the post-85s and post-90s generations to become the main force of travelers; the travel growth rate and average price of the silver-haired group significantly outperformed the market. In terms of travel destinations, Qunar data shows that the highest increase in hotel reservations during the holiday period is in small and county towns, with bookings for high-star hotels in county areas increasing by about 50%; while the most popular destinations are still traditional tourist cities like Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing, and Shanghai. Ctrip data shows that county tourism is highly welcomed by young consumers. In the first three days of the holiday, nearly half of the tourists in county towns were from the post-90s and post-00s, with these young people mostly coming from cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. The industry believes that this is mainly due to the more convenient infrastructure such as high-speed rail, more diverse consumer demands, and more attractive destination business formats. Additionally, holiday travel is more relaxing, as Ctrip data shows that the average number of days booked in advance for the National Day holiday has decreased from 6.8 days in 2023 to 6 days in 2024, with nearly 30% of travelers choosing to travel on the same day or one day in advance, which increased by 6 percentage points year-on-year. Off-peak travel is gradually becoming the new normal (before the festival, nearly 30% of travelers depart early, and travel orders during the first weekend after the National Day holiday increased by 10% compared to September, with some areas having tourism orders at levels similar to those during the National Day holiday).

Traditional high-quality tourist destinations lead the way in growth. The estimation shows that during the 2024 National Day holiday, the daily number of performances at the Songcheng Performance Development's scenic spots increased by about 68% compared to the previous year, and the daily number of performances at existing heavy asset scenic spots that were already open last year increased by about 35% compared to the previous year (with Xi'an, Hangzhou, Guilin projects leading in growth, partly due to the opening of the Xi'an project's Second Theater during the summer and the lower base of the Hangzhou project last year due to the Hangzhou Asian Games). From October 1st to 5th, 2024, the Changbai Mountain Tourism Area hosted a total of 1.524 million visitors, an increase of 21% year-on-year. It is estimated that from October 1st to 6th, 2024, Mount Emei received a number of visitors that increased by approximately 21% compared to the same period last year (from September 30 to October 5, 2023 data). It is estimated that from October 1st to 3rd, 2024, Huangshan received a number of visitors that increased by about 4% compared to the same period last year.

Key provinces and cities: Government data from Sanya City shows that during the first three days before the National Day holiday, the number of visitors to Sanya's scenic spots and top-rated countryside tourist spots increased by 14.5% year-on-year. Data from the Sichuan Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism shows that in the six days before the holiday this year, 890 A-level scenic spots in Sichuan Province received a 15% increase in visitors and an 8% increase in ticket revenue compared to the same period last year. Data from the Guangdong Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism shows that from October 1st to 4th, the number of visitors to 4A-level and above scenic spots in the province increased by 6.3% year-on-year based on comparable figures.

Outbound travel has significantly recovered its resilience. Data from Flight Butler shows that from October 1st to 6th, 2024, the daily average number of international and regional flights increased by 50.1% and 6.4% respectively compared to 2023, returning to about 83.5% and 71.8% of the same period in 2019 (compared to the recovery rates of 74.3% and 71.9% during the May Day and summer holidays). Looking at outbound travel destinations, Qunar data shows that Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and other countries are leading in the number of orders. Data from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government shows that from October 1st to 5th, a total of 0.98 million mainland Chinese visitors entered Hong Kong, an increase of about 35% year-on-year. Data from the Macao Special Administrative Region Tourism Office shows that from October 1st to 5th, a total of 0.68 million mainland Chinese tourists entered Macao, an increase of about 38% year-on-year. Additionally, due to increased supply, outbound travel prices have fallen, with Qunar data showing that this year's National Day international flight and hotel average payment prices have both decreased by about 15% year-on-year.

Hotels: During the National Day holiday, the trend of 'stable quantity and falling prices' continues, with attention on how RevPAR compares year-on-year against the lower base period after the holiday. 1) The demand for leisure travel during the National Day holiday continues the trend of 'stable quantity and falling prices', although demand for leisure travel during the National Day holiday continues to release. From the quantity perspective, Ctrip data shows a significant year-on-year increase in daily hotel and guesthouse orders during the National Day holiday; niche city tourist destinations are favored, which drives the performance of hotels in lower-tier cities. Tongcheng data shows that as of October 3rd, hotel bookings in cities such as Shanxi's Shanluo, Xinjiang's Kashgar and Hami, Yunnan's Xishuangbanna, and Guangdong's Chaozhou have seen higher increases; according to Qunar data, during the National Day period, high-star hotel bookings in county areas increased by about 50% year-on-year, with overall high-star hotel bookings increasing by over 30%. Taking the example of H World Group, as of September 26th, the overall hotel booking rate for H World Group's brands during the National Day holiday was almost the same as in 2023. In addition, the consumer booking window continues to shorten, with Qunar data showing a 40% year-on-year increase in last-minute hotel bookings in popular cities two days before the holiday. In terms of prices, the National Day holiday hotel prices are estimated to have experienced a certain decline from the high base of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in 2023, with Qunar data showing a year-on-year decrease of about 15% in average prices of high-star hotels during the National Day period, according to Fliggy's booking data as of 9/19, the overall hotel booking prices for the National Day holidays decreased by about 4.5% year-on-year compared to 2023. 2) Focus on the post-holiday change trend of the industry's RevPAR: STR data shows a year-on-year change in RevPAR for the Chinese mainland hotel industry during the first three weeks of September of -6.6%/-13.3%/-17.1%. Looking ahead, it is recommended to pay attention to the year-on-year changes in RevPAR during the fourth quarter following the National Day holidays against the lower base period (H World China, Atour Lifestyle Holdings, Jinjiang Inn's full 4Q23 RevPAR is expected to recover to about 120/109/100/91% of the same period in 2019).

Duty-free: During the National Day holiday, the flow of tourists in Hainan remained stable compared to the previous year; the new policy of duty-free shopping in the city has started to be implemented. 1) In terms of passenger flow, during the National Day holiday (10.1-10.7), Haikou Meilan Airport transported an average of 78,266 passengers per day, which was almost the same as the average number of passengers transported during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in 2023 (9.29-10.6). Compared to the National Day holidays in 2021 and 2019 (10.1-10.7), it increased by 44/24% respectively; in the first three days of the National Day holiday (10.1-10.3), Sanya Phoenix Airport transported an average of 62,309 passengers per day, a 3% increase compared to the first three days of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday in 2023 (9.29-10.1); combining the two major airports of Haikou Meilan and Sanya Phoenix, the average number of passengers transported per day in the first three days of the holiday increased by approximately 1% compared to the same period in 2023. In terms of sales, according to data from Hainan Daily, during the first four days of the holiday (10.1-10.4), the 12 duty-free shops on the outlying islands of Hainan had an average daily sales of over 0.15 billion yuan.

Dining: Tourists driving up in-restaurant consumption. Meituan data shows that in the five days before National Day, the daily average consumption of in-restaurant dining increased by 33.4% compared to the National Day holiday in 2023. In terms of consumption period, night time consumption increased by 44.8 percentage points compared to the 2023 holiday. In dining scenes, tourist consumption increased by over 75% compared to the 2023 holiday, with night market searches growing by 170.3% compared to the 2023 holiday, becoming the top popular search term near the scenic areas this year. On October 1st, Haidilao's nationwide stores received a total of over 1.9 million customers, a year-on-year increase of over 5%.

Media: Emotions are fully recovering.

Movie Theater Line: The box office performance during the National Day holiday was flat, focusing on the pace of subsequent key content releases. According to Maoyan, the box office revenue including service fees for the first six days of the 2024 National Day holiday (October 1st to October 6th) was 1.95 billion yuan, a 13.1% decrease compared to the first six days of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday in 2023 (September 29th to October 4th); the number of viewers was 48.24 million, a 9.5% decrease year-on-year; the average ticket price was 40.38 yuan, a 3.9% decrease year-on-year; the top three films in terms of box office were "Volunteer Army: Battle for Survival", "749 Bureau", and "Road of Flames". Looking ahead, according to Maoyan Professional Edition, the year-end New Year films have already been scheduled, including "I Scam Like You" (12/31, Maoyan's main production), "A Cloud Like You" (12/31, Wanda's main production), "Breakup List" (12/31, Taopiaopiao/China Film Co., Ltd., etc.); the market is now relatively conservative about the industry's full-year box office expectations, and the focus may gradually shift to the outlook for the 2025 Spring Festival film lineup.

Risk

Macroeconomic sentiment is lower than expected, regulatory policy changes, slow profit recovery, and intensified industry competition.