Coherent Corp. (NYSE:COHR) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 39% after a shaky period beforehand. The last month tops off a massive increase of 208% in the last year.
Following the firm bounce in price, when almost half of the companies in the United States' Electronic industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2x, you may consider Coherent as a stock probably not worth researching with its 3.1x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
How Coherent Has Been Performing
With revenue that's retreating more than the industry's average of late, Coherent has been very sluggish. It might be that many expect the dismal revenue performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Keen to find out how analysts think Coherent's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Coherent's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 8.8%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 52% overall rise in revenue, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 12% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 11% per year, which is not materially different.
With this information, we find it interesting that Coherent is trading at a high P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.
The Final Word
Coherent shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Given Coherent's future revenue forecasts are in line with the wider industry, the fact that it trades at an elevated P/S is somewhat surprising. The fact that the revenue figures aren't setting the world alight has us doubtful that the company's elevated P/S can be sustainable for the long term. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Coherent with six simple checks.
If you're unsure about the strength of Coherent's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.