他们的逻辑是，高盛对2025年和2026年的盈利比华尔街大多数人更加乐观。他们预计明年标普500指数的每股收益（EPS）将达到268美元，同比增长11%，2026年将达到288美元，这高于华尔街其他公司预测的2025年的265美元和2026年的281美元，但低于所有公司盈利预期汇总后的结果，即2025年的275美元和2026年的307美元。Goldman Sachs' chief analyst has raised the forecast for the S&P 500 index at least the third time this year, driven by its extreme optimism due to...
As the third quarter earnings season is about to begin, goldman sachs has once again raised its year-end and next 12-month targets for the s&p 500 index, expecting corporate profit margins to increase, and macroeconomic outlook to remain stable in 2025.
The team led by Goldman Sachs' chief analyst David Kostin has raised the forecast for the S&P 500 index at least the third time this year. Last Friday, Goldman Sachs raised the index target for the next 12 months from 6000 points to 6300 points and increased the year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5600 points to 6000 points, meaning the index will rise by 4.32% from last Friday's closing of 5751.07 points.
Their logic is that Goldman Sachs is more optimistic about the earnings for 2025 and 2026 compared to most on Wall Street. They expect the earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 index to reach $268 next year, an 11% year-on-year increase, and to reach $288 in 2026. This is higher than the forecasted $265 for 2025 and $281 for 2026 by other Wall Street companies, but lower than the combined earnings expectations of all companies, which are $275 for 2025 and $307 for 2026.
In last Friday's report led by Kostin and his team, they stated, "From a top-down perspective, our economists have a higher forecast for U.S. GDP growth than the market consensus. However, bottom-up analyst consensus EPS forecasts are usually too optimistic and tend to decline during the forecast period. Our estimates for future EPS reflect a stable macroeconomic outlook...(as well as) the main driver of our upward revision to 2025 EPS forecast is the larger profit margin expansion."
The Goldman Sachs team mentioned that what truly drives their new optimism is their view on profit margin expansion. They expect profit margins to rise from the estimated 11.5% this year to 12.3% next year, and further increase to 12.6% in 2026. Goldman Sachs' team previously expected a 24 basis points expansion in profit margin for 2025, but now it is 78 basis points.
Data from August shows that the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, supported by strong consumer spending and a rebound in corporate profits, which will help sustain economic expansion. They stated,
"The macro environment still favors moderate profit margin expansion, pricing growth exceeding cost growth. The boost from large technology stocks and the recovery of the semiconductor industry cycle will further support corporate EPS growth."
