FUTU Morning Post

Topic 1028 news 92308 Subscribers

U.S. Stock Market Outlook: Wall Street strategists are bullish on U.S. stocks, with s&p 500 expected to rise by another 10%! China assets etf continue to rise before the market opens, doubling the long positions in the csi 300 index, up more than 9%.

Futu News · 20:07

热点要闻

周一美股盘前，三大股指期货普跌

明星科技股盘前普跌，阿斯麦跌超2%，亚马逊、苹果跌超1%

热门中概股盘前多数上涨，理想汽车涨超5%，小鹏汽车涨超3%，阿里巴巴、百度涨超2%

中概股ETF盘前继续领涨美股ETF市场，A股相关ETF领涨。截至发稿$中国中小企业板创业板ETF-VanEck (CNXT.US)$ 涨9.03%、 $2倍做多沪深300ETF-Direxion (CHAU.US)$ 9.02%。

苹果计划于10月28日发布 Apple Intelligence 和 iOS 18.1

科技记者马克・古尔曼在最新一期Power On节目中透露， $苹果 (AAPL.US)$ Apple Intelligence功能将于10月28日与iOS 18.1一起推出。报道称苹果正在慢慢推出，以确保消除重大漏洞，并能够支持其 AI 云服务器上的所有新流量。Apple Intelligence 的第一个版本将包括通知摘要等内容，而后续更新(如 iOS 18.2)将添加ChatGPT 集成和对 Genmoji 自定义表情符号的支持。

Meta版Sora来袭，可无缝生产出完整的多媒体内容

北京时间10月4日， $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ 公布了名为 Movie Gen 的全新 AI 模型。它是由视频生成(Movie Gen Video)和音频生成(Movie Gen Audio)两个模型组成，可无缝生产出完整的多媒体内容，实现从图像、视觉到听觉的全方位覆盖。Meta称，这是“迄今最先进的媒体基础模型”。

亚马逊被富国银行下调评级，指短期内盈利复苏的可见性有限，盘前跌1.80%

富国银行将 $亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$ 评级从“增持”下调至“与大市同步”，还将目标价从225美元下调至183美元，强调了可能限制亚马逊到2027年营业收入（OI）增长的挑战。根据富国银行的说法，虽然Amazon Web Services （AWS）仍然强劲，但“不足以”在短期内推动积极的估计修正。该行警告称，“利润率扩张也可能在1H25受到限制”，并且在 2025年7月的指引之前，该公司不太可能看到恢复积极修订。

双11前京东将限时限量降价大促

据科创板日报援引 $京东 (JD.US)$ 内部人士消息，日前京东零售内部紧急会议，计划在10月8日启动2004年京东集团创始人、董事局主席刘强东带领团队推出的限时限量降价玩法“月黑风高” ，这次月黑风高覆盖的商品和降价力度会是全年投入力度最大的一次。

极氪盘前涨5.75%，7X大定破2万台，首月交付将超1万台

$极氪 (ZK.US)$ 7X的大定订单已突破2万台，预计首月交付量将超过1万台。此前，极氪7X上市24小时（截至9月21日）大定锁单即突破6千台；新车上市第二天即开启全国百城千人交付，10天交付超5千台，实现引领行业的交付效率和体系能力。据悉，极氪7X定位豪华大五座SUV，起售价为22.99万元。

波音与工会合同谈判将于10月7日恢复

美国 $波音 (BA.US)$ 公司及其最大工会当地时间周五表示，合同谈判将于10月7日恢复。双方寻求达成协议，结束约3.3万名波音美国西海岸工厂工人的罢工。波音与国际机械师和航空航天工人协会的谈判代表一直在努力寻找共同点，最近未能在联邦调解人在场的情况下就关键问题达成协议。

力拓洽购阿卡迪亚锂业公司

矿业巨头 $力拓 (RIO.US)$ 正就收购在纽约上市的锂生产商 $阿卡迪亚 (ACAD.US)$ 锂业公司进行谈判，这是力拓在这个快速增长的市场上立足的最新尝试。力拓在周一的一份声明中表示，已向阿卡迪亚锂业提出收购要约，但不确定能否达成协议。力拓表示，除非需要向投资者提供最新情况，否则不会进一步置评。今年1月，总部位于费城的Livent和澳大利亚的Allkem合并成立了阿卡迪亚锂业公司，目前市值约为30亿美元。

壳牌Q3炼油利润率大幅下降

$壳牌 (SHEL.US)$ 周一表示，由于全球需求下降，公司第三季度炼油利润率较前三个月大幅下降，石油产品交易收益也有所减弱。壳牌在最新交易报告中称，截至9月底的三个月中，其炼油利润率从上一季度的每桶7.7美元下降至每桶5.5美元，降幅近30%。化学品和石油产品部门的交易业绩预计将低于第二季度。

全球宏观

超预期就业报告提振信心，高盛将美国经济衰退概率下调至15%

在美国最新就业报告显示好于所有预期后，高盛将美国在未来12个月陷入衰退的可能性降低了5个百分点至15%。美国劳工部上周五公布，9月美国就业岗位增幅为六个月来最大，失业率降至4.1%。高盛首席美国经济学家Jan Hatzius周日在一份报告中称，9月就业报告“重新设定了就业市场的叙事”，并平息了对就业需求“走弱过快、无法阻止失业率上升趋势”的担忧。该行维持了连续降息25个基点的预期，称到2025年6月，最终利率将降至3.25-3.5%。

标普500有望再涨10%，华尔街两大知名策略师齐声唱多美股

在2024年年中之前还是华尔街最悲观的策略师之一、摩根士丹利的Michael Wilson表示，上周五公布的就业数据井喷式增长，以及美联储将进一步降息的预期，提高了他对相对于更安全的防御性股票的所谓周期性股票的看法。与此同时，高盛首席执行官David Kostin也上调了他对标普500指数成分股公司明年盈利增长的预期，因为稳健的宏观前景推动了利润率的增长。这位策略师将该基准指数的12个月目标从6000点上调至6300点，这意味着该指数将较当前水平上涨约10%。

日本央行官员：许多企业认为日元过度下跌不可取

日本央行大阪分行经理神山一成周一表示，日本西部许多公司认为日元过度下跌是不可取的。他在出席日本央行地区分行经理季度会议后在新闻发布会上说：“相当多的企业似乎都认为日元过度下跌是有问题的。” “不过，对于日元是否应该进一步升值，大家的看法不尽相同，企业一致认为，汇率波动应该适度，”神山说。

中国央行连续第五个月暂停增持黄金，外汇储备规模33164亿美元

中国央行公布数据显示，9月末黄金储备为7280万盎司，连续5个月保持不变。中国国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2024年9月末，外汇储备规模为33164亿美元，较8月末上升282亿美元，升幅为0.86%。

富时中国A50期货未平仓合约数量创纪录新高

随着中国内地处于为期一周的假期，交易员将注意力转向了新加坡和香港上市的期货。自上周二中国国庆黄金周假期开始以来，新加坡交易所富时中国A50指数期货的未平仓合约数量已飙升至创纪录的120万手。“强劲的交易量反映出，全球投资者在现货市场重新开放前管理其中国敞口并调整仓位。”新加坡交易所集团股票衍生品业务负责人Ding Meiyan说。

全球基金对印度股票的净卖出规模创纪录新高

印度股市遭遇全球基金至少1999年1月1日以来的最大净抛盘。印度证券交易委员会数据显示，10月3日全球基金净卖出1.017亿美元印度债券；根据交易所数据，10月3日全球基金净卖出18.5亿美元印度股票，创纪录最高水平。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

编辑/Rocky

Hot news

Pre-market trading on Monday, US stock futures are generally down.

Pre-market trading, growth tech stocks are generally down with ASML Holding down over 2%, Amazon and Apple down over 1%.

Pre-market trading, most China concept stocks are up with Li Auto Inc up over 5%, XPeng up over 3%, Alibaba and Baidu up over 2%.

China concept stocks ETF continues to lead the US stock ETF market in pre-market trading, and A-share related ETFs are leading. As of the deadline$VanEck ChiNext ETF (CNXT.US)$ up 9.03%, $Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares (CHAU.US)$ 9.02%。

Apple plans to release Apple Intelligence and iOS 18.1 on October 28.

Technology journalist Mark Gurman revealed in the latest episode of Power On that $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Apple Intelligence feature will be launched on October 28th along with iOS 18.1. Reports suggest that Apple is rolling it out slowly to ensure major bugs are ironed out and to support all new traffic on its AI cloud servers. The first version of Apple Intelligence will include features like notification summaries, while subsequent updates (such as iOS 18.2) will add ChatGPT integration and support for custom Genmoji emojis.

The Meta version of Sora is here, able to seamlessly produce complete multimedia content.

On October 4th, Beijing time, $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ Meta has revealed a new AI model called Movie Gen. It consists of two models, Movie Gen Video and Movie Gen Audio, seamlessly producing complete multimedia content, covering everything from images to sound. Meta claims this is the most advanced media base model to date.

Amazon was downgraded by Wells Fargo & Co, citing limited visibility on short-term profit recovery, with a pre-market drop of 1.80%.

Wells Fargo & Co. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ rating was downgraded from 'shareholding' to 'in sync with the market', with the target price lowered from $225 to $183. The challenges that may restrict Amazon's revenue growth until 2027 were emphasized. According to Wells Fargo & Co, although Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains strong, it is 'insufficient' to drive positive estimate revisions in the short term. The bank cautioned that 'profit margin expansion may also be limited in 1H25,' and the company is unlikely to see recovery positive revisions before the guidance in July 2025.

JD.com will offer limited-time, limited-quantity discounts before Double 11.

as reported by Star Daily $JD.com (JD.US)$ Internal sources revealed that there was an emergency meeting within JD.com's retail division recently, planning to launch the limited-time and limited-quantity price reduction strategy 'Dark Month, Windy Night' led by Liu Qiangdong, the founder and chairman of the board, on October 8, 2004. This 'Dark Month, Windy Night' promotion will cover products with the most significant investment and price reductions of the year.

Zeekr rose by 5.75% in pre-market trading, breaking the 0.02 million mark in large orders with 7X, and the first-month deliveries are expected to exceed 0.01 million units.

$ZEEKR (ZK.US)$ The large orders for 7X have exceeded 0.02 million units, and the expected first-month delivery volume will exceed 0.01 million units. Previously, within 24 hours of the Zeekr 7X release (as of September 21), large orders had already surpassed 6,000 units; on the second day of the new car release, nationwide deliveries involving thousands of people in hundreds of cities were initiated, achieving a delivery efficiency and system capability that leads the industry. The Zeekr 7X is positioned as a luxurious large five-seat SUV, with a starting price of 0.2299 million yuan.

Boeing's negotiations with the union are set to resume on October 7.

The company and its largest union announced on Friday local time that contract negotiations will resume on October 7. Both parties are seeking to reach an agreement to end the strike by approximately 33,000 Boeing workers on the U.S. West Coast. Negotiators from Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers have been working to find common ground, but have recently failed to reach an agreement on key issues in the presence of a federal mediator. $Boeing (BA.US)$ USA

Rio Tinto negotiates to acquire Acadia Lithium Corporation.

Mining giant $Rio Tinto (RIO.US)$ Currently in negotiations to acquire the lithium producer listed in New York. $ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD.US)$ Rio Tinto is in negotiations with the lithium company, marking its latest attempt to establish a foothold in this rapidly growing market. In a statement on Monday, Rio Tinto stated that it has made a takeover offer to Acadia Lithium, but uncertain if an agreement can be reached. Rio Tinto mentioned that they will not provide further comments unless there is a need to update investors on the latest developments. In January of this year, Livent based in Philadelphia and Allkem from Australia merged to form Acadia Lithium Corporation, currently valued at around $3 billion.

Shell Q3 refining margin significantly decreased.

$Shell (SHEL.US)$ Shell stated on Monday that due to the global demand decline, the company's refining margin in the third quarter significantly decreased compared to the previous three months, and the trading income of petroleum products also weakened. In its latest trading report, Shell announced that in the three months ending in September, its refining margin decreased from $7.7 per barrel in the previous quarter to $5.5 per barrel, a nearly 30% decrease. The trading performance of the chemicals and petroleum products divisions is expected to be lower than in the second quarter.

Global macro

Better-than-expected employment report boosts confidence, with Goldman Sachs lowering the probability of a U.S. economic recession to 15%.

Following the latest U.S. employment report showing better results than expected, Goldman Sachs reduced the probability of the U.S. entering a recession in the next 12 months by 5 percentage points to 15%. The U.S. Department of Labor announced last Friday that job growth in September was the largest in six months, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. Jan Hatzius, the Chief U.S. Economist at Goldman Sachs, stated in a report on Sunday that the September employment report "reset the narrative for the labor market" and alleviated concerns about the labor demand weakening too quickly and the inability to stop the rising trend in unemployment rates. The bank maintained the expectation of a continuous 25 basis point rate cut, stating that by June 2025, the final interest rate will drop to 3.25-3.5%.

S&P 500 is expected to rise another 10%, with two prominent Wall Street strategists bullish on U.S. stocks.

One of the most pessimistic strategists on Wall Street until mid-2024, Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley, stated that explosive job growth announced last Friday, along with expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed, increased his view on cyclical stocks relative to safer defensive stocks. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs CEO David Kostin also raised his expectations for next year's earnings growth for S&P 500 index component companies, as robust macroeconomic prospects are boosting profit margins. The strategist raised the benchmark index's 12-month target from 6000 points to 6300 points, indicating a potential 10% increase from the current level.

Bank of Japan officials: Many companies believe that excessive depreciation of the yen is undesirable.

Yasuyuki Kamiyama, the manager of the Bank of Japan's Osaka branch, stated on Monday that many companies in western Japan believe that excessive depreciation of the yen is undesirable. After attending the quarterly meeting of regional branch managers at the Bank of Japan, he said in a press conference, "Quite a few companies seem to think that excessive depreciation of the yen is problematic." "However, there are mixed views on whether the yen should appreciate further, with a unanimous agreement among companies that exchange rate fluctuations should be moderate," Kamiyama said.

The People's Bank of China has paused its gold shareholding for the fifth consecutive month, with foreign exchange reserves at a scale of $3,316.4 billion.

Data released by the People's Bank of China shows that as of the end of September, gold reserves remained unchanged at 72.8 million ounces for the fifth consecutive month. According to statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China, as of the end of September 2024, the size of foreign exchange reserves was $3,316.4 billion, an increase of $28.2 billion from the end of August, with a growth rate of 0.86%.

The open interest of the ftse china a50 index futures hit a record high.

With the Chinese mainland on a week-long holiday, traders are turning their focus to futures listed in Singapore and Hong Kong. Since the start of the China National Day Golden Week holiday last Tuesday, the open interest of the ftse china a50 index futures on the Singapore Exchange has surged to a record high of 1.2 million lots. "The strong trading volume reflects global investors managing their China exposure and adjusting positions before the spot market reopens," said Ding Meiyan, Head of Stock Derivatives Business at the Singapore Exchange Group.

Global funds set a record high net selling volume of India stocks.

The Indian stock market faced the largest net sell-off by global funds since at least January 1, 1999. Data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India shows that on October 3, global funds made a net sell-off of $0.1017 billion in Indian bonds; based on exchange data, global funds also saw a record high level of $1.85 billion net sell-off in Indian stocks on October 3.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Editor/Rocky

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.