Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

Two top strategists on Wall Street have become more optimistic about the US stock market, as there are signs that the US labor market is strong, the economy is resilient, and interest rates are declining.

By the middle of 2024, one of the most pessimistic strategists on Wall Street, Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley, stated that the explosive growth in employment data released last Friday, along with expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed, have increased his view on cyclical stocks compared to safer defensive stocks.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs CEO David Kostin has raised his expectations for next year's earnings growth of companies in the s&p 500 index components, as robust macroeconomic prospects are driving profit margins higher. This strategist has raised the 12-month target of the benchmark index from 6000 points to 6300 points, indicating a potential rise of about 10% from the current level.

Wilson wrote in a report: "As far as the stock market's response to employment/economic growth data is concerned, we still believe we are in a 'good is good' environment. Doubts in the bond market about a soft landing outcome are decreasing, which is an important signal for stock investors.

Due to easing concerns about an economic recession and Fed policy loosening, US stocks have continued to rebound after experiencing a sell-off in the summer. Based on swap data, traders expect the Fed to cut rates by another 100 basis points before May next year. The strong employment data released last Friday, which was far better than expected, also boosted market sentiment.

Wilson stated that this is a positive sign for US small-cap stocks, as they will benefit from improved business activity and sentiment, as well as reduced investor positions. This strategist has reduced long-term bets on large-cap stocks, citing diminishing risk-return in the short term.

Among various sectors, Wilson upgraded the rating of financial stocks to "shareholding," and downgraded the ratings of medical care and essential consumer goods.

$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ Expected to announce the latest performance on Friday, providing the latest information on the profitability of banks and officially kicking off the earnings season.

Editor / jayden