According to the ZhuTong Finance APP, HSBC Global Research released a report stating that it has raised the target price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388) by 26%, from 300 Hong Kong dollars to 378 Hong Kong dollars. The rating was downgraded to "hold" because the bank believes that there is limited room for further increase in its stock price.

HSBC believes that the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and market volume may have bottomed out in the cycle floor. The redistribution of wealth from deposits to stocks may continue, especially for new investors. International institutional investors may reassess their investment themes in mainland China and Hong Kong. The average daily turnover (ADT) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is expected to be raised to 121 billion, 160 billion, and 170 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively, with profit forecasts also increased by 5.4%, 16.9%, and 18.1%.

HSBC pointed out that the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has surged by about 55% since September 24, outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Trading volume has also hit new highs. It is expected that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will benefit from the surge in trading volume, ongoing policy relaxation in mainland China, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

However, the bank also believes that the surge in ADT is only temporary as capital market investors cannot invest in A-shares. In addition, expectations for Hong Kong stocks have also increased. The current market price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange already reflects daily average trading volumes between 155 billion and 170 billion Hong Kong dollars from the fourth quarter of 2024 to 2026, an increase of 37-50% compared to the first 9 months of 2024. The bank also has not seen any clear evidence of structural resolution of industrial issues under pressure in mainland China.