#黄金Technical analysis#24K99讯 traded early in the Asian market on Monday (October 7). Spot gold remained stable. Currently, the price of gold is around 2,651 US dollars/ounce. FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer wrote an article predicting and analyzing the trend of gold prices this week.

Sengezer pointed out that last week, due to the strength of the US dollar offsetting the growing safe-haven demand for gold, it was difficult to make a decisive change in the price of gold in either direction. Developments surrounding the Middle East conflict and US inflation data may drive the trend of gold prices this week.

On Friday (October 4), the gold market fluctuated extremely sharply due to the US non-farm payrolls report and the geopolitical situation. The US Department of Labor reported on Friday that the US added new additions in SeptemberNumber of people employed in non-agricultural industriesThe total was 0.254 million, higher than the 0.159 million people after the August correction, and better than the 0.15 million expected by the market. The unemployment rate fell 0.1% month-on-month in September to 4.1%. The market expects the unemployment rate to stabilize at 4.2%.

The price of gold plummeted to 2631.92 US dollars/ounce after the strong non-agricultural report came out. However, the price of gold then rebounded sharply from its low point, hitting a high of 2670.22 US dollars/ounce. By the close of last Friday, spot gold closed at $2653.26 per ounce, with a slight drop of 0.1% during the day.

Analysts pointed out that geopolitical tension limits investors' willingness to sell gold.

On October 4, local time, a senior US State Department official said that Israel did not promise the Biden administration that it would not carry out retaliatory attacks against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Israel and Iran have never been so close to forging a new, much more dangerous front in the war engulfing the Middle East.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting and US CPI data may ignite this week's market

Sengezer said that in the first half of this week, the US economy will not release any important macroeconomic data. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the September policy meeting.

Sengezer pointed out that investors will pay close attention to discussions surrounding lowering the policy interest rate by 50 basis points. If the Federal Reserve minutes show that policymakers tend to cut interest rates sharply as the first step in gradually easing policies, rather than as a response to signs of a cooling labor market, then the immediate reaction may boost the dollar. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group)'s “Federal Reserve Watch Tool” shows that the market still believes that the possibility that the Fed will choose to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points at the next policy meeting in November is more than 30%. This indicates that if investors tend to think that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the dollar still has more room to rise.

On the other hand, if the minutes of the meeting reflect that policymakers are open to further sharp interest rate cuts when data shows a recession or worsening labor market prospects, the dollar may come under pressure and push gold higher.

On Thursday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release consumer price index (CPI) data for September. The core CPI month-on-month data may trigger a reaction from gold. This data does not include highly volatile commodity prices and is not distorted by base effects. The market expects core CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month in September, following a 0.3% increase in August. Sengezer notes that a reading of 0.2% or lower could put pressure on the dollar. An increase of 0.5% or more may cause investors to doubt the anti-inflationary process and boost the dollar, leading to a downward trend in gold prices.

Market participants will also keep a close eye on headlines from the Middle East, Sengezer said. If Israel retaliates against Iran and Iran does not take a step back, leading to a deepening crisis, gold may continue to benefit from safe-haven demand.

Gold was used as a safe-haven investment during times of political turmoil. Due in part to safe-haven purchases, the price of gold recently hit a record high of $2685.42 per ounce.

Gold's technical outlook for this week

According to Sengezer, on the daily chartRelative strength index(RSI) It fell slightly below 70, reflecting the reluctance of sellers to bet that gold will continue to fall. On the downside, the midpoint of the upward channel that began at the end of June formed the first at $2,640 per ounceSupport level.

If the price of gold falls below these levels, the next support level may be at $2605-2,600 per ounce (20-day simple moving average, static level), followed by $2,575 per ounce (lower edge of an ascending channel).

(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)

On the upward side, the short-term resistance of the gold price appears to be formed at 2,675 US dollars/ounce (static level). If this barrier is broken, the next resistance of the gold price is 2700-2705 US dollars/ounce (integer mark, upper edge of the ascending channel).

At 08:30 Beijing time, spot gold was reported at 2651.04 US dollars/ounce.