Avis Budget Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAR) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 28% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 51% share price drop in the last twelve months.
Even after such a large jump in price, given about half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 19x, you may still consider Avis Budget Group as a highly attractive investment with its 4x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Avis Budget Group as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the earnings slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
How Is Avis Budget Group's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Avis Budget Group's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 60% decrease to the company's bottom line. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 740% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 22% per year during the coming three years according to the seven analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 10% each year, which paints a poor picture.
In light of this, it's understandable that Avis Budget Group's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Bottom Line On Avis Budget Group's P/E
Shares in Avis Budget Group are going to need a lot more upward momentum to get the company's P/E out of its slump. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that Avis Budget Group maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Avis Budget Group (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
