On the evening of the 5th local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made a video speech stating that Israel has the right to self-defense and respond to Iran's attacks. He said, 'Although we have not completely eliminated the threat, we have clearly changed the course and balance of the conflict.' He also expressed Israel's determination to defend against threats from any country or region, including 'from Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria - of course, including from Iran itself.'

In the early hours of the 6th local time, sirens sounded in the northern Israeli town of Shemona and several nearby communities. The Israeli Defense Forces announced that about 30 rockets entered Israeli airspace from Lebanon, some of which were intercepted while others fell.

As the situation in the Middle East escalates, international oil prices surged during the National Day holiday, marking the largest weekly gain in over a year. With the sharp rise in oil prices and domestic policy stimulus, the domestic chemical industry chain may experience a round of price increases after the holiday.

During the National Day holiday, LME three-month nickel, zinc futures continued to rise. Among them, London zinc hit a nearly one-year high, as the market awaits actual support from domestic stimulus policies for metals.

With a series of stimulus policies such as real estate introduced domestically, real estate stocks have continued to soar recently, while the sluggish black series futures have seen a major outbreak. On September 30th, rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, coking coal, glass, and other five major real estate chain futures closed at limit up, with iron ore skyrocketing by 10.71%. Is a new round of black series storm approaching? Post-holiday trends of black series futures are drawing market attention.

Netanyahu's Latest Statement

On the evening of the 5th local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made a video speech stating that Israel has the right to self-defense and respond to Iran's attacks. This is what Israel is about to do.

When talking about the Lebanon-Israel conflict, he said, 'One month ago, we began to fulfill my promises to the residents of the north,' Israel killed the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon and several senior commanders, and destroyed 'most' of Hezbollah's missile and rocket reserves, Israel is changing the 'balance of power' in the north.

He added, 'Although we have not completely eliminated the threat, it is clear that we have already changed the course and balance of the conflict.'

He also stated that Israel is determined to resist threats from any country and region, including 'from Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria - of course, from Iran itself.'

French President Macron publicly stated on October 5th that while he reiterated his support for Israel's security and sympathy for the families of Israeli hostages, he called for a ceasefire and accordingly to stop providing weapons for Israel's combat. This statement was dubbed 'shameful' by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Netanyahu criticized Macron in an English video statement that 'Israel will win with or without their support, but their shame will persist long after Israel's victory.'

Middle East tensions escalate, international oil prices surge during the holiday

On October 1st, Iran launched multiple missiles at Israel, vowing to strike Iran, the situation in the Middle East escalated, WTI oil prices soared by 3.62% that day, breaking through $70 per barrel.

Due to concerns about the possibility of a larger-scale war in the Middle East, oil prices surged continuously this week. By the end of Friday's close, WTI crude oil was at $74.45 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 8.46%, and Brent crude had a weekly gain of 8.56%, marking the largest single-week gain in over a year.

On October 5th, according to CCTV News citing foreign media reports, senior Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine has died in Israel's attack on the southern outskirts of Beirut, Lebanon. The situation in the Middle East is further escalating, with the full-scale war looming closer.

Goldman Sachs said on Friday that due to possible disruptions in Iranian oil production, it is expected that the peak price estimate of Brent crude oil in 2025 will increase by 10-20 US dollars. In the absence of major supply disruptions, the average price for the fourth quarter of 2024 is 77 US dollars per barrel, and the average price for 2025 is 76 US dollars per barrel.

JPMorgan's commodity analysts believe that attacking Iranian energy facilities will not be Israel's preferred course of action. They added that despite this, the low global oil inventory levels suggest that oil prices will remain high until the conflict is resolved.

Zhongzheng Futures stated that both Saudi Arabia and Russia have stated plans to increase production as planned, while the expected recovery of supplies from Libya is gradually resuming. However, with the recent deterioration of the situation in the Middle East, the conflict between Israel and Lebanon intensifies, which may to some extent increase the geopolitical premium of crude oil.

Industry insiders stated that with the sharp rise in crude oil prices and the stimulus of loose domestic policies, the domestic chemical industry chain may experience a round of price increases after the holidays. On September 30, soda ash futures rose by the limit, rubber and polyester industry chain varieties surged significantly, and funds poured into the chemical sector.

In addition, during the National Day holiday, LME three-month nickel, zinc futures and other metals also continued to rise. Among them, London Zinc hit a nearly one-year high, closing at 3170.5 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 3.11%; LME copper prices have risen by 11% over the past month. The market focus is on how China's previously announced stimulus policies will actually support metals.

Black metal products soared, with five major varieties hitting the limit up.

Under the requirement to fully promote the stabilization of the real estate market, the real estate policy environment has entered an unprecedented loose stage. Recently, real estate stocks continued to surge, and the continuously sluggish black metal futures welcomed a major outbreak.

On September 30, black metal futures violently surged. Rebar, hot coils, coking coal, metallurgical coke, glass and other five major real estate chain futures closed at the limit up, with iron ore skyrocketing by 10.71%.

From the closing positions of rebar, the long positions reduced by 0.0467 million lots, while the short positions reduced by 0.0746 million lots. Against the backdrop of a relatively warm policy environment, the shorts retreat for risk aversion before the holiday, highlighting the clear advantage of the longs.

Huaxin Futures stated that first-tier cities have successively introduced optimized real estate policies, relaxed purchase restrictions, and the real estate sector is expected to stabilize. Combined with loose monetary and fiscal policies, the medium-to-long-term outlook for steel is positive. In terms of the industry, steel mills are increasing production, recovering profits, and rising raw material prices are driving up steel production costs, forming a positive feedback loop.

Data from My Steel Network shows that on October 3, Tangshan Qian'an's tax-inclusive ex-factory price of ordinary bloom billet was raised by 40 yuan to 3390 yuan/ton. Overall, in the first three days before the National Day holiday, the ex-factory tax-inclusive price of ordinary bloom billet has risen by 90 yuan.

According to Steel Home information, the third round of domestic metallurgical coke price increases has basically been implemented on October 1. Boosted by positive macro policies and the sharp rise in downstream steel prices, the market still holds bullish expectations, with some coke enterprises initiating a fourth round of price hikes.

In terms of the market, there is a futures and spot resonance pattern, with a significant increase in steel market prices. The average price of rebar in 28 domestic markets monitored by Steel Home has risen above 3840 yuan per ton, with a weekly average increase of over 560 yuan. At the same time, market activity has increased based on the daily average trading volume.

Xinhua Futures stated that steel mill resumptions in this round still remain cautious, inventory replenishment before the holiday has basically ended, and the next focus will be on the peak demand in the 'Silver September' period. Overall, the fundamentals have not significantly changed. In the short term, market sentiment is boosted by macro policy stimuli. Attention is on whether there will be corresponding fiscal policy follow-up. In the medium to long term, attention will be on the fundamental situation after the sentiment cools down; it is advisable to participate cautiously.

Editor/Somer