This week's big schedule at a glance

• The State Information Office will hold a press conference on October 8

The Information Office of the State Council will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on October 8, 2024 (Tuesday). Zheng Zhajie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, and Liu Sushe, Zhao Chenxin, Li Chunlin, and Zheng Bei, were invited to introduce the “Systematic implementation of a package of incremental policies to steadily promote an improved economic structure and a continued positive development trend” and answer questions from reporters.

• A lot of attention! A-shares open on Tuesday

Boosted by the policy “combo punch,” Chinese assets have recently been “bombarded”, and A-shares will open for the first time after the National Day holiday on Tuesday (October 8). While the A-share market was closed during the National Day holiday, Chinese assets continued to perform brilliantly, opening room for imagination for A-share performance after the holiday.

Also, according to reports, in order to do a good job in trading operations after the holidays, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are scheduled to conduct a market-wide connectivity test on October 7. According to reports, the test after the exchange holiday is a routine test.

Furthermore, from October 9 to 15, the National Bureau of Statistics, the Central Bank of China, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will separately release inflation, financial, and foreign exchange data, including China's September CPI and PPI data, China's September social finance, and new RMB loans.

• Major data such as the US CPI is coming, and the CPI data may be an upward surprise

In the coming week, a series of major data will be released, including the US will announce the unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate and monthly rate for September at 20:30 on Thursday; the annual PPI rate and monthly rate for September will be released at 20:30 on Friday.

The market generally anticipates that the US CPI data for September may have some upward risks, especially the core CPI.

Currently, CPI swap pricing indicates the possibility of an unexpected upward trend in data. It is expected that in September, CPI may increase 2.36% year on year and 0.15% month on month. These two numbers would be rounded to 2.4% and 0.2%, respectively, higher than the consensus 2.3% and 0.1%. This may reinforce the Fed's bet to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, thereby strengthening the dollar.

According to market opinion, the recent non-farm payroll report, which far exceeded expectations, led the market to expect the bank's probability (97%) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, but given the September CPI report on Thursday, this forecast may still be variable.

• Federal Reserve officials are raging, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are released

Looking ahead to the week ahead, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meetings and intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials may provide more clues about the Fed's next interest rate path. Looking at the specific schedule:

Tuesday: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari attended the Q&A session at the Bank Holding Companies Association's fall seminar; Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostick delivered a speech; St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Musalem delivered a speech on economic prospects and monetary policy; Federal Reserve Governor Kugler spoke at a conference hosted by the European Central Bank;

Wednesday: Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a speech on economic prospects; Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Collins delivered a speech at a community banking conference; Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a welcome speech at an event; Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan delivered a speech on the current state of the economy; and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby delivered an opening speech at the Chicago Payments Seminar;

Thursday: Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin delivered a speech, Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Collins delivered a speech, San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly delivered a speech, Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin participated in a fireside conversation, and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams spoke and participated in discussions on economic prospects and monetary policy;

Friday: Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman attended the 18th Annual Community Bankers Symposium, and Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan participated in an expert panel discussion.

Also, at 2 a.m. on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.

• Big news from star stocks: Tesla will officially release Robotaxi, AMD will host “Rejected AI 2024”

On October 10, EST (October 11, Beijing time), Tesla plans to officially launch Robotaxi.

Some analysts pointed out that Robotaxi Day is ostensibly an event to launch autonomous driving technology, but in reality, Musk needs to convince investors at this event that Tesla is a “technology company” rather than a “car manufacturer.”

Wall Street generally believes that Tesla's future growth will mainly come from the execution of AI projects, especially Robotaxi and the humanoid robot Optimus. This is also the reason why Tesla's stock price is supported by weak train sales.

In addition to Robotaxi itself, investors are also concerned about whether Tesla will launch a new, more affordable model, the Model 2, at this event.

Additionally, at 00:00 Beijing time on Friday, October 11th, Nvidia's main competitor, AMD, will host “Innovative AI 2024” to showcase the fifth-generation AMD EPYC server processor and progress on networking and AI PCs, and will also focus on the AI solution ecosystem.

• Q3 earnings season is here! J.P. Morgan Chase and others took the lead in announcing results

US stocks will enter the Q3 earnings season, and financial giants such as J.P. Morgan Chase and BlackRock are scheduled to release performance reports on Friday. Prior to that, the financial reports of Pepsi and Domino's Pizza are also worth paying attention to. The recent popularity of diet pills may have a profound impact on the food industry.

Bryant VanKronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, said that banking performance provides an important perspective on the economy, including default conditions and loan requirements.

• Will the tension in the Middle East escalate again?

Recently, the situation in the Middle East became increasingly tense, and many countries announced the temporary closure of airspace. US President Joe Biden said at a briefing on the 4th that if he takes Israel's perspective, he will consider other alternatives to attacking oil fields. Biden also said Israel “will not make an immediate decision.”

Oil prices continued to rise sharply this week due to concerns that a larger war might break out in the Middle East. J.P. Morgan commodity analysts believe that attacking Iran's energy facilities will not be Israel's preferred course of action. They added that despite this, the low level of global oil stocks suggests that oil prices will remain high until the conflict is resolved.

• Due to Chung Yeung Festival, Hong Kong stocks were closed for one day on Friday, and southbound and northbound trading was closed

This week's key performance calendar

Monday, October 7th

Keywords：China foreign exchange reserves; A-share market closure

On Monday, in terms of financial data, China will release China's foreign exchange reserves for September.

Also, due to the National Day holiday, the A-share market was closed, and Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect suspended trading.

Tuesday, October 8th

Keywords: US September NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, US August Trade Balance, Reserve Bank of Australia Announces September Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Federal Reserve Officials Speeches

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the US will release the September NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, August trade account data, etc.

In terms of financial events, a large number of Federal Reserve officials made public appearances: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari attended the Q&A session at the Bank Holding Companies Association's fall seminar; Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostick delivered a speech; St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Musalem delivered a speech on economic prospects and monetary policy; Federal Reserve Governor Kugler delivered a speech at a conference hosted by the European Central Bank; in addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting.

In terms of performance, $PepsiCo (PEP.US)$ , $Accolade (ACCD.US)$ , $IDT Corp (IDT.US)$ Financial reports will be announced in advance of the US stock market.

In terms of IPOs, $TAIMEI TECH (02576.HK)$ Listed in Hong Kong.

Wednesday, October 9th

Keywords: China's M2 money supply annual rate in September, EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report, Fed official speech

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, China will announce the annual rate of China's M2, M1, and M0 money supply in September, new RMB loans added so far this year, and incremental data on the scale of social financing from September to this year; the US will announce the current week's EIA crude oil inventory and the monthly wholesale sales rate for August.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve officials spoke intensively: Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a speech on the economic outlook; Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Collins delivered a speech at a community banking conference; Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a welcome speech at an event; Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan delivered a speech on the current state of the economy; Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby delivered an opening speech at the Chicago Payments Seminar; in addition, the EIA announced the monthly short-term energy outlook report, and the New Zealand Federal Reserve announced interest rate decisions and monetary policy evaluation reports.

In terms of IPOs, $WING LEE DEV (09639.HK)$ It will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Thursday October 10th

Keywords: The Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, the annual rate of the US CPI not seasonally adjusted in September, the number of jobless claims in the US until the beginning of the week until October 5, speeches by Federal Reserve officials

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the US will release data such as the unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate and monthly rate for September, and the number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week.

In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of the monetary policy meeting; Federal Reserve officials will continue to deliver speeches on various occasions: Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin, Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Collins, and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly delivered speeches; Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin participated in a fireside conversation; and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams spoke and participated in discussions on economic prospects and monetary policy.

In terms of performance, Hong Kong stocks$FAST RETAIL-DRS (06288.HK)$ Will release the latest results; US stocks $Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$ , $Domino's Pizza (DPZ.US)$ Earnings will be announced before the market.

Friday October 11th

Keywords: Hong Kong stock market closure, US September PPI annual rate, Fed speech, bank stock performance, Robotaxi debut

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce the PPI annual rate and monthly rate for September, the initial value of the expected inflation rate for the first year of October, and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for October.

In terms of financial events, Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman attended the 18th Annual Community Bankers Symposium, and Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan participated in an expert panel discussion.

In terms of performance, a new financial reporting season for US companies has officially begun. $Blackrock (BLK.US)$ , $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ , $Bank of New York Mellon (BK.US)$ The latest US stock results will be announced before the market.

Major events for individual stocks, October 11, Beijing time $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ A Robotaxi (driverless taxi) press conference will be held, and a dedicated platform for driverless cars that it plans to release in the next few years will also be showcased. Musk confirmed on social media that this will be Tesla's “most important moment.”

Also on Friday, Nvidia's main rival -- $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ “Innovative AI 2024” will be held to showcase the fifth-generation AMD EPYC server processors and progress on networking and AI PCs, and will also focus on the AI solution ecosystem.

Market closure schedule. Due to the Chung Yeung Festival, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and southbound and northbound trading will be closed.

Good luck with your investments in the new week!

Editor/Somer